IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/imfstp/v57y2010i2p303-325.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Emerging Market Business Cycles with Remittance Fluctuations

Author

Listed:
  • Ceyhun Bora Durdu
  • Serdar Sayan

Abstract

This paper analyzes the implications of remittance fluctuations for various macroeconomic variables and sudden stops. The paper employs a quantitative two-sector model of a small open economy with financial frictions calibrated to Mexican and Turkish economies, two major recipients, whose remittance receipts feature opposite cyclical characteristics. We find that remittances dampen business cycles in Mexico, whereas they amplify the cycles in Turkey. Their quantitative effects in the long run, approximated by the stochastic steady state, are mild. In the short run, however, remittances have quantitatively large impacts on the economy, when the economy is borrowing-constrained. This is because agents in the economy cannot adjust their precautionary wealth to sudden tightening in credit, and hence, fluctuations in remittances get magnified through an endogenous debt-deflation mechanism. The findings suggest that procyclical (or countercyclical) remittances can play a significant deepening (or mitigating) role for sudden stops.

Suggested Citation

  • Ceyhun Bora Durdu & Serdar Sayan, 2010. "Emerging Market Business Cycles with Remittance Fluctuations," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(2), pages 303-325, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:57:y:2010:i:2:p:303-325
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/imfsp/journal/v57/n2/pdf/imfsp20093a.pdf
    File Function: Link to full text PDF
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/imfsp/journal/v57/n2/full/imfsp20093a.html
    File Function: Link to full text HTML
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    3. Tauchen, George & Hussey, Robert, 1991. "Quadrature-Based Methods for Obtaining Approximate Solutions to Nonlinear Asset Pricing Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 371-396, March.
    4. Durdu, Ceyhun Bora & Mendoza, Enrique G. & Terrones, Marco E., 2009. "Precautionary demand for foreign assets in Sudden Stop economies: An assessment of the New Mercantilism," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 194-209, July.
    5. Erik Lueth & Marta Ruiz-Arranz, 2007. "Are workers' remittances a hedge against macroeconomic shocks? The case of Sri Lanka," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 14(1), pages 25-39, June.
    6. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2001. "The external wealth of nations: measures of foreign assets and liabilities for industrial and developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 263-294, December.
    7. Dean Yang, 2008. "International Migration, Remittances and Household Investment: Evidence from Philippine Migrants’ Exchange Rate Shocks," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(528), pages 591-630, April.
    8. Ralph Chami & Connel Fullenkamp & Samir Jahjah, 2005. "Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(1), pages 55-81, April.
    9. Neumeyer, Pablo A. & Perri, Fabrizio, 2005. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 345-380, March.
    10. S. Rao Aiyagari, 1994. "Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(3), pages 659-684.
    11. Acosta, Pablo A. & Lartey, Emmanuel K.K. & Mandelman, Federico S., 2009. "Remittances and the Dutch disease," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 102-116, September.
    12. Mr. Erik Lueth & Marta Ruiz-Arranz, 2007. "Are Workers' Remittances a Hedge Against Macroeconomic Shocks? the Case of Sri Lanka," IMF Working Papers 2007/022, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Mr. Serdar Sayan, 2006. "Business Cycles and Workers' Remittances: How Do Migrant Workers Respond to Cyclical Movements of GDP At Home?," IMF Working Papers 2006/052, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Durdu, Ceyhun Bora, 2009. "Quantitative implications of indexed bonds in small open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 883-902, April.
    15. Sayan, Serdar & Tekin-Koru, Ayca, 2007. "Remittances, Business Cycles and Poverty: The Recent Turkish Experience," MPRA Paper 6029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Kose, M. Ayhan, 2002. "Explaining business cycles in small open economies: 'How much do world prices matter?'," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 299-327, March.
    17. Kuckulenz, Anja & Buch, Claudia M., 2004. "Worker Remittances and Capital Flows to Developing Countries," ZEW Discussion Papers 04-31, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    18. Russell, Sharon Stanton, 1986. "Remittances from international migration: A review in perspective," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 677-696, June.
    19. Kim, Sunghyun Henry & Kose, M. Ayhan, 2003. "Dynamics Of Open-Economy Business-Cycle Models: Role Of The Discount Factor," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 263-290, April.
    20. Luis-Fernando Mejía & Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo, 2004. "On the empirics of Sudden Stops: the relevance of balance-sheet effects," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
    21. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2002. "Credit, Prices, and Crashes: Business Cycles with a Sudden Stop," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 335-392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Panageas, Stavros, 2008. "Hedging sudden stops and precautionary contractions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 28-57, February.
    23. Mr. Ralph Chami & Mr. Thomas F. Cosimano & Michael T. Gapen, 2006. "Beware of Emigrants Bearing Gifts: Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in the Presence of Remittances," IMF Working Papers 2006/061, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Funkhouser, Edward, 1992. "Migration from Nicaragua: some recent evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 20(8), pages 1209-1218, August.
    25. Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1992. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 495-517, September.
    26. Serdar Sayan & Ayça Tekin-Koru, 2010. "Host-Country Economic Policies and Worker Remittances to Developing Countries: The Cases of Turkey and Mexico," Chapters, in: Robert E.B. Lucas & Lyn Squire & T. N. Srinivasan (ed.), Global Exchange and Poverty, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    27. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Price of Nontradables in Sudden-Stop-Prone Economies," NBER Working Papers 11691, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Buch, Claudia M. & Kuckulenz, Anja & Le Manchec, Marie-Helene, 2002. "Worker Remittances and Capital Flows," Kiel Working Papers 1130, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    29. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Giulia Bettin & Andrea F. Presbitero & Nikola L. Spatafora, 2017. "Remittances and Vulnerability in Developing Countries," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 31(1), pages 1-23.
    2. George S. Naufal & Ismail H. Genc, 2015. "Structural Change in MENA Remittance Flows," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(6), pages 1175-1178, November.
    3. Katarzyna Budnik, 2011. "Temporary migration in theories of international mobility of labour," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 42(6), pages 7-48.
    4. Batu, Michael, 2017. "International worker remittances and economic growth in a Real Business Cycle framework," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 81-91.
    5. Bentour, El Mostafa, 2013. "Should Moroccan Officials Depend on the Workers’ Remittances to Finance the Current Account Deficit?," MPRA Paper 52290, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 May 2013.
    6. Beaton Kimberly & Cevik Serhan & Yousefi Seyed Reza, 2018. "Smooth operator: remittances and household consumption during fiscal shocks," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-21, June.
    7. Finkelstein Shapiro, Alan & Mandelman, Federico S., 2016. "Remittances, entrepreneurship, and employment dynamics over the business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 184-199.
    8. Kearney, Colm, 2012. "Emerging markets research: Trends, issues and future directions," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 159-183.
    9. Supriyo De & Ergys Islamaj & M. Ayhan Kose & S. Reza Yousefi, 2019. "Remittances over the business cycle: Theory and evidence," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 48(3), November.
    10. Schneider, Friedrich & Khan, Shabeer & Baharom Abdul Hamid & Khan, Abidullah, 2019. "Does the tax undermine the effect of remittances on shadow economy?," Economics Discussion Papers 2019-67, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    11. Acosta, Pablo A. & Lartey, Emmanuel K.K. & Mandelman, Federico S., 2009. "Remittances and the Dutch disease," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 102-116, September.
    12. Mandelman, Federico S. & Zlate, Andrei, 2012. "Immigration, remittances and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 196-213.
    13. Domingo T. Balse, Jr, 2018. "Aggregate remittance cost and diaspora financing of overseas Filipino teachers in the kingdom of Thailand," Journal of Administrative and Business Studies, Professor Dr. Usman Raja, vol. 4(5), pages 258-266.
    14. Jounghyeon Kim, 2019. "The Impact of Remittances on Exchange Rate and Money Supply: Does “Openness” Matter in Developing Countries?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(15), pages 3682-3707, December.
    15. Hulya Ulku, 2012. "Remitting Behaviour of Turkish Migrants: Evidence from Household Data in Germany," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 49(14), pages 3139-3158, November.
    16. Ahmat Jidoud, 2015. "Remittances and Macroeconomic Volatility in African Countries," IMF Working Papers 2015/049, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Chatterjee, Santanu & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2018. "Remittances and the informal economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 66-83.
    18. Mandelman, Federico S., 2013. "Monetary and exchange rate policy under remittance fluctuations," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 128-147.
    19. Timo Baas & Silvia Maja Melzer, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Remittances: A sending country perspective," Norface Discussion Paper Series 2012021, Norface Research Programme on Migration, Department of Economics, University College London.
    20. Hathroubi, Salem & Aloui, Chaker, 2016. "On interactions between remittance outflows and Saudi Arabian macroeconomy: New evidence from wavelets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 32-45.
    21. Bahadir, Berrak & Chatterjee, Santanu & Lebesmuehlbacher, Thomas, 2018. "The macroeconomic consequences of remittances," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 214-232.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Durdu, Ceyhun Bora, 2009. "Quantitative implications of indexed bonds in small open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 883-902, April.
    2. Javier Bianchi, 2011. "Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3400-3426, December.
    3. Javier Bianchi, 2011. "Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3400-3426, December.
    4. Durdu, Ceyhun Bora & Mendoza, Enrique G. & Terrones, Marco E., 2009. "Precautionary demand for foreign assets in Sudden Stop economies: An assessment of the New Mercantilism," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 194-209, July.
    5. Bahadir, Berrak & Chatterjee, Santanu & Lebesmuehlbacher, Thomas, 2018. "The macroeconomic consequences of remittances," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 214-232.
    6. C. Bora Durdu, 2006. "Are Indexed Bonds a Remedy for Sudden Stops?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 11, Society for Computational Economics.
    7. Durdu, C. Bora & Nunes, Ricardo & Sapriza, Horacio, 2013. "News and sovereign default risk in small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 1-17.
    8. Uribe, Martin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2006. "Country spreads and emerging countries: Who drives whom?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 6-36, June.
    9. Batu, Michael, 2017. "International worker remittances and economic growth in a Real Business Cycle framework," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 81-91.
    10. Liu, Xuan, 2007. "Trade Openness and the Cost of Sudden Stops: The Role of Financial Friction," MPRA Paper 18260, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 26 Oct 2009.
    11. Fornaro, Luca, 2015. "Financial crises and exchange rate policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 202-215.
    12. Mandelman, Federico S., 2013. "Monetary and exchange rate policy under remittance fluctuations," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 128-147.
    13. Emine Boz & C. Bora Durdu & Nan Li, 2015. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Role of Labor Market Frictions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 31-72, February.
    14. Leonida Correia & Patrícia Martins, 2019. "Has the sovereign debt crisis changed the cyclicality of Portuguese remittances?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 453-472, May.
    15. Drechsel, Thomas & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2018. "Commodity booms and busts in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 200-218.
    16. Fernández, Andrés & González, Andrés & Rodríguez, Diego, 2018. "Sharing a ride on the commodities roller coaster: Common factors in business cycles of emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 99-121.
    17. Franz Hamann, 2002. "Sovereign Risk and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Borradores de Economia 225, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    18. Gabriel Cuadra & Juan Sanchez & Horacio Sapriza, 2010. "Fiscal Policy and Default Risk in Emerging Markets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(2), pages 452-469, April.
    19. Emine Boz & C. Bora Durdu & Nan Li, 2015. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Role of Labor Market Frictions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 31-72, February.
    20. Oliver de Groot & C. Bora Durdu & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2019. "Global v. Local Methods in the Analysis of Open-Economy Models with Incomplete Markets," Working Papers 201916, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:57:y:2010:i:2:p:303-325. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.