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Emerging Market Business Cycles with Remittance Fluctuations

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  • Ceyhun Bora Durdu
  • Serdar Sayan

Abstract

This paper analyzes the implications of remittance fluctuations for various macroeconomic variables and sudden stops. The paper employs a quantitative two-sector model of a small open economy with financial frictions calibrated to Mexican and Turkish economies, two major recipients, whose remittance receipts feature opposite cyclical characteristics. We find that remittances dampen business cycles in Mexico, whereas they amplify the cycles in Turkey. Their quantitative effects in the long run, approximated by the stochastic steady state, are mild. In the short run, however, remittances have quantitatively large impacts on the economy, when the economy is borrowing-constrained. This is because agents in the economy cannot adjust their precautionary wealth to sudden tightening in credit, and hence, fluctuations in remittances get magnified through an endogenous debt-deflation mechanism. The findings suggest that procyclical (or countercyclical) remittances can play a significant deepening (or mitigating) role for sudden stops.

Suggested Citation

  • Ceyhun Bora Durdu & Serdar Sayan, 2010. "Emerging Market Business Cycles with Remittance Fluctuations," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(2), pages 303-325, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:57:y:2010:i:2:p:303-325
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    Cited by:

    1. Katarzyna Budnik, 2011. "Temporary migration in theories of international mobility of labour," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 42(6), pages 7-48.
    2. Batu, Michael, 2017. "International worker remittances and economic growth in a Real Business Cycle framework," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 81-91.
    3. Bentour, El Mostafa, 2013. "Should Moroccan Officials Depend on the Workers’ Remittances to Finance the Current Account Deficit?," MPRA Paper 52290, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 May 2013.
    4. Finkelstein Shapiro, Alan & Mandelman, Federico S., 2016. "Remittances, entrepreneurship, and employment dynamics over the business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 184-199.
    5. Kearney, Colm, 2012. "Emerging markets research: Trends, issues and future directions," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 159-183.
    6. Acosta, Pablo A. & Lartey, Emmanuel K.K. & Mandelman, Federico S., 2009. "Remittances and the Dutch disease," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 102-116, September.
    7. Giulia Bettin & Andrea F. Presbitero & Nikola L. Spatafora, 2017. "Remittances and Vulnerability in Developing Countries," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 31(1), pages 1-23.
    8. Supriyo De & Ergys Islamaj & Ayhan Kose & S. Reza Yousefi, 2016. "Remittances over the Business Cycle: Theory and Evidence," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1601, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    9. Mandelman, Federico S. & Zlate, Andrei, 2012. "Immigration, remittances and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 196-213.
    10. George S. Naufal & Ismail H. Genc, "undated". "Structural Change in MENA Remittance Flows," Economics Working Papers 07-05/2013, School of Business Administration, American University of Sharjah.
    11. Ahmat Jidoud, 2015. "Remittances and Macroeconomic Volatility in African Countries," IMF Working Papers 15/49, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Hulya Ulku, 2012. "Remitting Behaviour of Turkish Migrants: Evidence from Household Data in Germany," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 49(14), pages 3139-3158, November.
    13. repec:eee:deveco:v:133:y:2018:i:c:p:66-83 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Mandelman, Federico S., 2013. "Monetary and exchange rate policy under remittance fluctuations," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 128-147.
    15. Timo Baas & Silvia Maja Melzer, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Remittances: A sending country perspective," Norface Discussion Paper Series 2012021, Norface Research Programme on Migration, Department of Economics, University College London.
    16. Hathroubi, Salem & Aloui, Chaker, 2016. "On interactions between remittance outflows and Saudi Arabian macroeconomy: New evidence from wavelets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 32-45.
    17. repec:eee:inecon:v:111:y:2018:i:c:p:214-232 is not listed on IDEAS

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