IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tcb/wpaper/0704.html

The monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey : New developments

Author

Listed:
  • Erdem Basci
  • Ozgur Ozel
  • Cagri Sarikaya

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to study the changes in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Turkey. The analysis hinges upon both qualitative and quantitative evidence regarding various channels of monetary policy transmission. The arguments about the extent of the exchange rate, interest rate, asset price, credit and expectations channel are based on various studies conducted especially in the aftermath of the February 2001 financial crisis. The paper asserts that the interest rate and the credit channel have an increasingly visible effect on economic activity, while the prominence of the exchange rate channel tends to attenuate in the post-crisis period thanks to prudent fiscal policies and the start of the inflation-targeting regime under floating exchange rates. Furthermore, the improvements in the communication policy increased the ability of the Central Bank of Turkey in managing expectations along with an enhanced credibility.

Suggested Citation

  • Erdem Basci & Ozgur Ozel & Cagri Sarikaya, 2007. "The monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey : New developments," Working Papers 0704, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:0704
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Research/Working+Paperss/2007/07-04
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Moron, Eduardo & Winkelried, Diego, 2005. "Monetary policy rules for financially vulnerable economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 23-51, February.
    2. Olivier Blanchard, 2004. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Brazil," NBER Working Papers 10389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Sukru Binay & Ferhan Salman, 2007. "A Critique on Turkish Real Estate Market," Working Papers 2008/8, Turkish Economic Association.
    4. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(s1), pages 1-35.
    5. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1999. "Interest Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 57-126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Kara, Orhan, 2000. "Exchange rate overshooting in Turkey," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 89-93, July.
    7. Mr. Guillermo Calvo & Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1992. "Currency Substitution in Developing Countries: An Introduction," IMF Working Papers 1992/040, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Fatih …zatay, 2007. "Monetary Policy Challenges for Turkey in the European Union Accession Process," Chapters, in: Erdem Başçı & Sübidey Togan & Jürgen von Hagen (ed.), Macroeconomic Policies for EU Accession, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy inertia," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    10. Hakan Kara & Fethi Ogunc, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey : It is Slow, but is it Really Low?," Working Papers 0510, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    11. Erdem Başçı & Sübidey Togan & Jürgen von Hagen (ed.), 2007. "Macroeconomic Policies for EU Accession," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12570.
    12. Mehtap Kesriyeli & Erdal Ozmen & Serkan Yigit, 2005. "Corporate Sector Debt Composition and Exchange Rate Balance Sheet Effect in Turkey," Working Papers 0516, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    13. Halil Ibrahim Aydin, 2007. "Interest Rate Pass-Through in Turkey," Working Papers 0705, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    14. Michael Woodford, 2001. "The Taylor Rule and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 232-237, May.
    15. repec:bla:manchs:v:67:y:1999:i:0:p:1-35 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Guillermo A. Calvo & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2003. "The Mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Market Countries," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 99-118, Fall.
    17. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(6), pages 584-584.
    18. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, January.
    19. Hakan Kara & Hande Küçük‐Tuğer & Ümit Özlale & Burç Tuğer & Eray M. Yücel, 2007. "Exchange Rate Regimes And Pass‐Through: Evidence From The Turkish Economy," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 25(2), pages 206-225, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Saban Nazlioglu & Dogukan Tarakci & Emre Kilic, 2024. "Nelson and Plosser revisited: macroeconomic and financial stability of Turkey," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(6), pages 2557-2592, June.
    2. Kose, Nezir & Emirmahmutoglu, Furkan & Aksoy, Sezgin, 2012. "The interest rate–inflation relationship under an inflation targeting regime: The case of Turkey," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 476-485.
    3. S. Burcu Avci & Eray Yucel, 2017. "Effectiveness of monetary policy: evidence from Turkey," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 7(2), pages 179-213, August.
    4. Yüksel, Ebru & Metin-Ozcan, Kivilcim & Hatipoglu, Ozan, 2013. "A survey on time-varying parameter Taylor rule: A model modified with interest rate pass-through," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 122-134.
    5. Umit Bulut, 2016. "May Monetary Transmission Lags Have a Role in Missing Inflation Targets in Turkey? Cointegration Tests with Structural Breaks and Structural VAR Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(4), pages 93-103, April.
    6. Turhan, Ibrahim M. & Gumus, Nihat, 2014. "On the relative importance of monetary transmission channels in Turkey," MPRA Paper 69827, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 May 2014.
    7. Dedeoğlu, Dinçer & Kaya, Hüseyin, 2014. "Pass-through of oil prices to domestic prices: Evidence from an oil-hungry but oil-poor emerging market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 67-74.
    8. Ramon Moreno & Agustin Villar, 2010. "Inflation expectations, persistence and monetary policy," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy and the measurement of inflation: prices, wages and expectations, volume 49, pages 77-92, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Fatih OKUR & Ömer AKKUŞ & Atakan DURMAZ, 2019. "The effectiveness of the monetary transmission mechanism channel in Turkey," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 10, pages 161-180, June.
    10. Kaya, Huseyin, 2013. "Forecasting the yield curve and the role of macroeconomic information in Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-7.
    11. James L Butkiewicz & Zeliha Ozdogan, 2014. "Financial crisis, monetary policy reform and the monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 66-83, January.
    12. Simon Neaime, 2008. "Monetary Policy Transmission and Targeting Mechanisms in the MENA Region," Working Papers 395, Economic Research Forum, revised 03 Jan 2008.
    13. Fethi Ogunc & Cagri Sarikaya, 2011. "Gorunmez Ama Hissedilmez Degil : Turkiye'de Cikti Acigi," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 11(2), pages 15-28.
    14. Aktürk, Halit, 2016. "Do stock returns provide a good hedge against inflation? An empirical assessment using Turkish data during periods of structural change," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 230-246.
    15. Kaya, Huseyin, 2013. "The yield curve and the macroeconomy: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 100-107.
    16. Adnen Chockri & Ibticem Frihka, 2011. "La portée de la politique de ciblage d’inflation: Approche analytique et empirique pour le cas Tunisien," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 58(1), pages 91-111, March.
    17. Abdurrahman Nazif Çatik & Mehmet Karaçuka, 2012. "The bank lending channel in Turkey: has it changed after the low-inflation regime?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(13), pages 1237-1242, September.
    18. Arhan S. Ertan & Gürbüz Kıran, 2021. "Global financial environment or monetary transmission mechanism? The (special) dynamics of Turkey's external deficit after 2002," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4054-4076, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September.
    2. Taylor, John B. & Williams, John C., 2010. "Simple and Robust Rules for Monetary Policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 15, pages 829-859, Elsevier.
    3. Annicchiarico Barbara & Marini Giancarlo & Piergallini Alessandro, 2008. "Monetary Policy and Fiscal Rules," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-42, February.
    4. Pfajfar, Damjan & Santoro, Emiliano, 2011. "Determinacy, stock market dynamics and monetary policy inertia," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 7-10, July.
    5. Hakan, Yilmazkuday, 2009. "Is there a Role for International Trade Costs in Explaining the Central Bank Behavior?," MPRA Paper 15951, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Bullard, James & Cho, In-Koo, 2005. "Escapist policy rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1841-1865, November.
    7. Pelin Ilbas, 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy rules for the Euro area in a DSGE framework," Working Papers of Department of Economics, Leuven ces0613, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Economics, Leuven.
    8. Mash, Richard, 2002. "New Keynesian Microfoundations Revisited: A Generalised Calvo-Taylor Model and the Desirability of Inflation vs. Price Level Targeting," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 138, Royal Economic Society.
    9. repec:bla:manchs:v:70:y:2002:i:4:p:546-69 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Lars E. O. Svensson & Michael Woodford, 2004. "Implementing Optimal Policy through Inflation-Forecast Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2005. "Monetary policy, indeterminacy and learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1809-1840, November.
    12. Galí, Jordi, 2002. "New Perspectives on Monetary Policy, Inflation and the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 3210, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Fernando Alexandre, 2002. "Monetary Policy, Investment and Non-Fundamental Shocks," NIPE Working Papers 6/2002, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    14. Amato, Jeffery D. & Laubach, Thomas, 2004. "Implications of habit formation for optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 305-325, March.
    15. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2006. "Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
    16. Aoki, Kosuke, 2003. "On the optimal monetary policy response to noisy indicators," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 501-523, April.
    17. Christian Aubin & Ibrahima Diouf & Dominique Pepin, 2010. "Inertie De La Politique Monétaire Dans La Zone Euro : Le Rôle De L'Hétérogénéité," Post-Print hal-00960030, HAL.
    18. repec:pri:cepsud:84svensson is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Christiano, Lawrence & Motto, Roberto & Rostagno, Massimo, 2008. "Shocks, structures or monetary policies? The Euro Area and US after 2001," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2476-2506, August.
    20. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Benigno, Gianluca, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules and the Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2807, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "The quest for prosperity without inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 633-663, April.
    22. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 2, pages 027-076, Central Bank of Chile.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:0704. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sermet Pekin or Ilker Cakar or the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tcmgvtr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.