The interest rate–inflation relationship under an inflation targeting regime: The case of Turkey
This paper examines the relationship between nominal interest rates and the expected inflation rate for the Turkish economy between 2002 and 2009, a period when the inflation-targeting regime was implemented as monetary policy. We use the test of cointegrating rank with a trend-break (a method introduced by Inoue, 1999) and we also apply exogeneity tests. Empirical findings indicate that monetary policy rates depend on inflationary expectations; long-term interest rates are affected by monetary policy; and the weak form of the Fisher effect is valid. This evidence implies that monetary policy has actually influenced the real long-term interest rates; the inflation targeting regime pursued by the Central Bank of Turkey is reliable; and hence realized inflation has remained close to its targeted level.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ellingsen, Tore & Söderström, Ulf, 1998.
"Monetary Policy and Market Interest Rates,"
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
242, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 08 Mar 1999.
- Svensson, L-E-O, 1996.
"Inflation Forecast Targeting : Implementaing and Monitoring Inflation Targets,"
615, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
- Svensson, Lars E.O., 1997. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Seminar Papers 615, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Lars E O Svensson, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Bank of England working papers 56, Bank of England.
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," NBER Working Papers 5797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Svensson, Lars E O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," CEPR Discussion Papers 1511, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hasan Ersel & Fatih Ãzatay, 2008. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 44(6), pages 38-51, November.
- Gerlach, Richard & Wilson, Patrick & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2006.
"Structural breaks and diversification: The impact of the 1997 Asian financial crisis on the integration of Asia-Pacific real estate markets,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 974-991, October.
- Pat Wilson & Ralf Zurbruegg & Richard Gerlach, 2002. "Structural Breaks and Diversification: The Impact of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis on the Integration of Asia-Pacific Real Estate Markets," Working Paper Series 121, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
- David H. Romer & Christina D. Romer, 2000. "Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 429-457, June.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987.
"Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Cem Akyurek & Ali M Kutan, 2008. "Inflation Targeting, Policy Rates and Exchange Rate Volatility: Evidence from Turkey," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 50(3), pages 460-493, September.
- Inoue, Atsushi, 1999. "Tests of cointegrating rank with a trend-break," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 215-237, June.
- Chen, Cathy W.S. & Gerlach, Richard & Cheng, Nick Y.P. & Yang, Y.L., 2009. "The impact of structural breaks on the integration of the ASEAN-5 stock markets," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(8), pages 2654-2664.
- A. Hakan Kara, 2008.
"Turkish Experience With Implicit Inflation Targeting,"
Central Bank Review,
Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16.
- Ali Hakan Kara, 2006. "Turkish Experience With Implicit Inflation Targeting," Working Papers 0603, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- H.a. Mitchell-innes & M.j. Aziakpono & A.p. Faure, 2007. "Inflation Targeting And The Fisher Effect In South Africa: An Empirical Investigation," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(4), pages 693-707, December.
- James Payne & Bradley Ewing, 1997. "Evidence from lesser developed countries on the Fisher hypothesis: a cointegration analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(11), pages 683-687.
- Erdem Basci & Özgür Özel & Cagri Sarikaya, 2008.
"The monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey: new developments,"
BIS Papers chapters,
in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 475-499
Bank for International Settlements.
- Erdem Basci & Ozgur Ozel & Cagri Sarikaya, 2007. "The monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey : New developments," Working Papers 0704, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Perron, Pierre, 1989.
"The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis,"
Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
- Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Perron, P., 1994.
"Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables,"
Cahiers de recherche
9421, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
- Perron, P., 1994. "Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables," Cahiers de recherche 9421, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Perron, P., 1990. "Further Evidence On Breaking Trend Functions In Macroeconomics Variables," Papers 350, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Ekrem Gul & Sezgin Acikalin, 2008. "An examination of the Fisher Hypothesis: the case of Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(24), pages 3227-3231.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Hakan Berument & Mohamed Mehdi Jelassi, 2002. "The Fisher hypothesis: a multi-country analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(13), pages 1645-1655.
- Olcay Çulha & Ali Çulha & Rauf Gönenç, 2008. "The Challenges of Monetary Policy in Turkey," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 646, OECD Publishing.
- Mehtap Kesriyeli, 1994. "Policy Regime Changes and Testing for the Fisher and UIP Hypotheses : The Turkish Evidence," Discussion Papers 9411, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Ky-Hyang Yuhn, 1996. "Is the Fisher effect robust? Further evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 41-44.
- Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2006. "Testing For Cointegration In Nonlinear Smooth Transition Error Correction Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(02), pages 279-303, April.
- Peersman, Gert, 2002. "Monetary policy and long term interest rates in Germany," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 271-277, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:23:y:2012:i:4:p:476-485. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.