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Assessing the fit of small open economy DSGEs

We describe a simple extension of the Monacelli (2005) small open economy model that incorporates a non-tradable good, habit persistence and price indexation. The empirical fit of eight different specifications of this model is then tested in a Bayesian framework using data for three small open economies: Australia, Canada, and New Zealand. The results show that the model with a non-tradable good fits the data better than the one-good model across all specifications considered. In contrast to Rabanal and Rubio-Ramarez (2005), we find that adding price indexation to either the one- or two-good model deteriorates overall empirical fit.

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File URL: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research_and_publications/discussion_papers/2006/dp06_11.pdf
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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of New Zealand in its series Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series with number DP2006/11.

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Length: 36 p.
Date of creation: Dec 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2006/11
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  1. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Priors from General Equilibrium Models for VARS," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(2), pages 643-673, 05.
  2. Matheson, Troy D., 2008. "Phillips curve forecasting in a small open economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 161-166, February.
  3. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2002. "An estimated stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Series 0171, European Central Bank.
  4. Burstein, Ariel Tomas & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2005. "The Importance of Nontradeable Goods' Prices in Cyclical Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 5306, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan Rubio-Ramirez & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "A, B, C's (and D)'s for Understanding VARs," NBER Technical Working Papers 0308, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Jordi Gal� & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
  7. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2006. "Bayesian analysis of DSGE models," Working Papers 06-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  8. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Loss function-based evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 645-670.
  10. Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2005. "On the Fit and Forecasting Performance of New Keynesian Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 4848, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. John Geweke, 1999. "Using Simulation Methods for Bayesian Econometric Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 832, Society for Computational Economics.
  12. Santacreu, Ana Maria, 2005. "Reaction functions in a small open economy: What role for non-traded inflation?," Working Papers 2014-44, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  13. Philip Liu, 2006. "A Small New Keynesian Model of the New Zealand economy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  14. Engel, C., 1996. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 96-02, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  15. Stephen Murchison & Andrew Rennison, 2006. "ToTEM: The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model," Technical Reports 97, Bank of Canada.
  16. Michael B. Devereux & Philip Lane, 2001. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies," Trinity Economics Papers 200111, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  17. Rabanal, Pau & Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F., 2005. "Comparing New Keynesian models of the business cycle: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1151-1166, September.
  18. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper Series WP-01-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  19. Jose De Gregorio & Alberto Giovannini, 1993. "International Evidence on Tradables and Nontradable Inflation," NBER Working Papers 4438, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Douglas Laxton & Paolo Pesenti, 2003. "Monetary Rules for Small, Open, Emerging Economies," NBER Working Papers 9568, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models—Rejoinder," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 211-219.
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