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Effectiveness of the Australian Fiscal Stimulus Package: A DSGE Analysis

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Listed:
  • Shuyun May Li
  • Adam Spencer

Abstract

We develop and estimate a small open economy DSGE model to investigate the effectiveness of the Australian fiscal stimulus package introduced in the aftermath of the global financial crisis (GFC). The timing and magnitudes of GFC shocks, fiscal shocks that mimic the stimulus transfers, and accommodative monetary policy shocks are carefully calibrated and fed into various simulation experiments. The results suggest that the stimulus transfers were effective in combating the economic downturn caused by the GFC, however, the scale of the transfer initiative seems to be excessive.

Suggested Citation

  • Shuyun May Li & Adam Spencer, 2014. "Effectiveness of the Australian Fiscal Stimulus Package: A DSGE Analysis," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1184, The University of Melbourne.
  • Handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:1184
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tobias Cwik & Volker Wieland, 2011. "Keynesian government spending multipliers and spillovers in the euro area," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 26(67), pages 493-549, July.
    2. Forni, Lorenzo & Monteforte, Libero & Sessa, Luca, 2009. "The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: Estimates for the Euro area," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(3-4), pages 559-585, April.
    3. Davig, Troy & Leeper, Eric M., 2011. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions and fiscal stimulus," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 211-227, February.
    4. Günter Coenen & Christopher J. Erceg & Charles Freedman & Davide Furceri & Michael Kumhof & René Lalonde & Douglas Laxton & Jesper Lindé & Annabelle Mourougane & Dirk Muir & Susanna Mursula & Carlos d, 2012. "Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 22-68, January.
    5. Anthony J. Makin, 2010. "Did Fiscal Stimulus Counter Recession? Evidence from the National Accounts," Discussion Papers in Economics economics:201008, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
    6. Thorsten Drautzburg & Harald Uhlig, 2015. "Fiscal Stimulus and Distortionary Taxation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 894-920, October.
    7. Matheson, Troy, 2010. "Assessing the fit of small open economy DSGEs," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 906-920, September.
    8. Cogan, John F. & Cwik, Tobias & Taylor, John B. & Wieland, Volker, 2010. "New Keynesian versus old Keynesian government spending multipliers," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 281-295, March.
    9. Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2007. "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A structural investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1069-1087, May.
    10. Leigh Andrew, 2012. "How Much Did the 2009 Australian Fiscal Stimulus Boost Demand? Evidence from Household-Reported Spending Effects," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-24, March.
    11. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2005. "A Bayesian Look at New Open Economy Macroeconomics," Economics Working Paper Archive 521, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    12. Abbas Valadkhani & Allan P. Layton, 2004. "Quantifying the Effect of the GST on Inflation in Australia's Capital Cities: An Intervention Analysis," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 37(2), pages 125-138, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Australian fiscal stimulus; DSGE; Global financial crisis; Bayesian estimation;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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