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Döviz kuru ve ithalat fiyatlarının yurt içi fiyatlara etkisi

Author

Listed:
  • Hakan KARA

    (TCMB)

  • Fethi ÖĞÜNÇ

    (TCMB)

Abstract

Bu çalışma, vektör öz gecikmeli (vector autoregression-VAR) modeller kullanarak Türkiye’de döviz kuru ve ithalat fiyatlarının çekirdek tüketici fiyatları (işlenmemiş gıda ve alkollü içecekler-tütün hariç TÜFE) üzerindeki etkisini (geçişkenlik etkisi) incelemektedir. 2002-2011 dönemi için farklı modellerle yapılan tahminler, geçişkenliğin bir yıllık zaman diliminde her iki değişken için de ortalama yüzde 15 civarında olduğuna işaret etmektedir. Bulgular bu anlamda tüketici fiyat dinamikleri üzerinde ithalat fiyat geçişkenliğinin döviz kuru geçişkenliği kadar önemli olduğunu belirtmektedir. Ayrıca, gerek VAR sonuçları gerekse zaman içinde değişen parametre modeli ile elde edilen sonuçlar, döviz kuru ile tüketici fiyatları arasındaki ilişkinin azalmaya devam ettiğini göstermektedir.

Suggested Citation

  • Hakan KARA & Fethi ÖĞÜNÇ, 2012. "Döviz kuru ve ithalat fiyatlarının yurt içi fiyatlara etkisi," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 27(317), pages 09-28.
    • Handle: RePEc:iif:iifjrn:v:27:y:2012:i:317:p:09-28
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Oguz Atuk & Cem Aysoy & Mustafa Utku Ozmen & Cagri Sarikaya, 2014. "Turkiye�de Enflasyonun Is Cevrimlerine Duyarliligi : Cikti Acigina Duyarli TUFE Alt Gruplarinin Saptanmasi," Working Papers 1437, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    2. Yener Coskun & Unal Seven & H. Murat Ertugrul & Talat Ulussever, 2017. "Capital market and economic growth nexus: Evidence from Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 17(1), pages 1-19–29.
    3. Selen Baser Andic & Fethi Ogunc, 2015. "Variable Selection for Inflation : A Pseudo Out-of-sample Approach," Working Papers 1506, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    4. Selen Başer Andiç & Hande Küçük & Fethi Öğünç, 2015. "Inflation Dynamics in Turkey: In Pursuit of a Domestic Cost Measure," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(2), pages 418-431, March.
    5. Cengiz TUNC & Mustafa Kilinc, 2018. "Exchange Rate Pass‐Through In A Small Open Economy: A Structural Var Approach," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(4), pages 410-422, October.
    6. Mustafa Kılınç & Cengiz Tunç & Mehmet Yörükoğlu, 2016. "Twin stability problem: joint issue of high current account deficit and high inflation," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, volume 89, pages 361-371, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Tunç, Cengiz, 2017. "A Survey on Exchange Rate Pass through in Emerging Markets," Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, BETA Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 205-233, July-Sept.
    8. Ülke, Volkan, 2015. "The Degree of Currency Substitution and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," MPRA Paper 75633, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Dec 2015.
    9. Mustafa Kilinc & Cengiz Tunc, 2014. "Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks in Turkey: A Structural VAR Approach," Working Papers 1423, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    10. Omer Fazil Emek & Faruk Dusunceli & Omer Doru, 2021. "Investigation of the Exchange Rate Pass-through Effect on Domestic Producer and Consumer Prices in Turkey," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 71(1), pages 163-190, June.
    11. Hatice Burcu Gurcihan Yunculer & Fethi Ogunc, 2015. "Firma Maliyet Yapisi ve Maliyet Kaynakli Enflasyon Baskilari," Working Papers 1503, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    12. Bank for International Settlements, 2016. "Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 89.
    13. Coskun Yener & Jadevicius Arvydas, 2017. "Is there a Housing Bubble in Turkey?," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 25(1), pages 48-73, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Geçişkenlik; Enflasyon; Döviz kuru; İthalat fiyatı; Türkiye;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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