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Information and the Formation of Inflation Expectations by Firms: Evidence from a Survey of Israeli Firms

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Listed:
  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko
  • Rafi Melnick
  • Ari Kutai

Abstract

This study analyzes how firms form their inflation expectations during a regime change in monetary policy and a transition to a low-inflation environment. Using the Bank of Israel survey of firms, we document the basic properties of firms’ inflation expectations and examine how Israeli firms update their inflation expectations after receiving new information about inflation or monetary policy. We find that even after successful de-dollarization and disinflation a positive inflation surprise leads to a sizable upward adjustment in inflation expectations for the next year and quarter. A surprise hike in the monetary interest rate leads to a downward adjustment in inflation expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Rafi Melnick & Ari Kutai, 2023. "Information and the Formation of Inflation Expectations by Firms: Evidence from a Survey of Israeli Firms," NBER Working Papers 31507, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31507
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar, 2018. "How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2671-2713, September.
    2. Alberto Cavallo & Guillermo Cruces & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2017. "Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 1-35, July.
    3. Cukierman, Alex & Melnick, Rafi, 2015. "The Conquest of Israeli Inflation and Current Policy Dilemmas," CEPR Discussion Papers 10955, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Jonung, Lars, 1981. "Perceived and Expected Rates of Inflation in Sweden," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 961-968, December.
    5. Ilek, Alex, 2021. "Are monetary surprises effective? The view of professional forecasters in Israel," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 516-530.
    6. Lamla, Michael J. & Vinogradov, Dmitri V., 2019. "Central bank announcements: Big news for little people?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 21-38.
    7. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Kumar, Saten & Pedemonte, Mathieu, 2020. "Inflation expectations as a policy tool?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    8. Melnick, Rafi & Strohsal, Till, 2017. "Disinflation in steps and the Phillips curve: Israel 1986–2015," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 145-161.
    9. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Inflation Expectations in Ukraine: A Long Path to Anchoring?," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 233, pages 6-23.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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