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On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Beaudry
  • Tim Willems

Abstract

Analyzing International Monetary Fund (IMF) data, we find that overly optimistic growth expectations for a country induce economic contractions a few years later. To isolate the causal effect, we take an instrumental variable approach—exploiting randomness in the country allocation of IMF mission chiefs. We first document that IMF mission chiefs differ in their individual degrees of forecast optimism, yielding quasi-experimental variation in the degree of forecast optimism at the country level. The mechanism appears to run through excessive accumulation of debt (public and private). Our findings illustrate the potency of unjustified optimism and underline the importance of basing economic forecasts upon realistic medium-term prospects.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Beaudry & Tim Willems, 2022. "On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 38-59, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:14:y:2022:i:1:p:38-59
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20190332
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    Cited by:

    1. Potrafke, Niklas, 2025. "The economic consequences of businesspeople in politics: A survey," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    2. Ko, Eunmi, 2024. "An affine term structure model with Fed chairs’ speeches," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    3. Cipullo, Davide & Reslow, André, 2022. "Electoral cycles in macroeconomic forecasts," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 307-340.
    4. Eicher, Theo S. & Kawai, Reina, 2024. "Systemic bias of IMF reserve and debt forecasts for program countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 985-1001.
    5. Bas Scheer, 2022. "Addressing Unemployment Rate Forecast Errors in Relation to the Business Cycle," CPB Discussion Paper 434, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    6. Caselli, Francesca & Reynaud, Julien, 2020. "Do fiscal rules cause better fiscal balances? A new instrumental variable strategy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    7. Pietro Munari, 2024. "The Impact of Market Sentiment and Macroeconomic Fundamentals on Government Bond (Mis)-pricing," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 24228, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    8. Sebastián Horn & David Mihaly & Philipp Nickol & César Sosa-Padilla, 2024. "Hidden Debt Revelations," Working Papers 338, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    9. Ted H. Chu & Marshall L. Stocker & Brandon J. Tan, 2021. "Economic fitness: How equity market returns reflect the realization of economic growth potential," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1550-1562, January.
    10. Eicher, Theo S. & Rollinson, Yuan Gao, 2023. "The accuracy of IMF crises nowcasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 431-449.
    11. Vladimír Novák & Andrei Matveenko & Silvio Ravaioli, 2024. "The Status Quo and Belief Polarization of Inattentive Agents: Theory and Experiment," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 1-39, November.
    12. Eric Chyn & Brigham Frandsen & Emily Leslie, 2025. "Examiner and Judge Designs in Economics: A Practitioner's Guide," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 63(2), pages 401-439, June.
    13. Siddhartha S. Bora & Ani L. Katchova & Todd H. Kuethe, 2021. "The Rationality of USDA Forecasts under Multivariate Asymmetric Loss," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(3), pages 1006-1033, May.
    14. Gatti, Roberta & Lederman, Daniel & Islam, Asif M. & Nguyen, Ha & Lotfi, Rana & Emam Mousa, Mennatallah, 2024. "Data transparency and GDP growth forecast errors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    15. Yan Carrière-Swallow & José Marzluf, 2023. "Macrofinancial Causes of Optimism in Growth Forecasts," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 509-537, June.
    16. Giovannelli, Alessandro & Pericoli, Filippo Maria, 2020. "Are GDP forecasts optimal? Evidence on European countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 963-973.
    17. Klaus-Peter Hellwig, 2018. "Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections," IMF Working Papers 2018/260, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Mihalyi, David & Mate, Akos, 2019. "Text-mining IMF country reports - an original dataset," MPRA Paper 100656, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Sun, Dingqiang & Qie, Xueting & Huang, Kaixing, 2025. "The Phantom Menace in Agriculture: How Lagged Droughts Distort Input Decisions and Create Environmental Deadweight Loss," MPRA Paper 126068, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Kristina Bluwstein & Julieta Yung, 2019. "Back to the real economy: the effects of risk perception shocks on the term premium and bank lending," Bank of England working papers 806, Bank of England.
    21. Eicher, Theo S. & Kawai, Reina, 2023. "IMF trade forecasts for crisis countries: Bias, inefficiency, and their origins," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1615-1639.
    22. Antoine Gaudin & Brendan Harnoys Vannier & Martin Kessler, 2024. "A Critical Analysis of DSA Projections," Development, Palgrave Macmillan;Society for International Deveopment, vol. 67(3), pages 233-247, December.
    23. Michael Atingi-Ego & Sayed Timuno & Tiviniton Makuve, 2021. "Public Debt Accumulation in SSA: A Looming Debt Crisis [‘Government Ponzi Games and the Sustainability of Public Deficits Under Uncertainty’]," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 30(Supplemen), pages 103-139.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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