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Do Fiscal Rules Cause Better Fiscal Balances? A New Instrumental Variable Strategy

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  • Francesca Caselli
  • Julien Reynaud

Abstract

This paper estimates the causal effect of fiscal rules on fiscal balances in a panel of 142 countries over the period 1985-2015. Our instrumental variable strategy exploits the geographical diffusion of fiscal rules across countries. The intuition is that reforms in neighboring countries may affect the adoption of domestic reforms through peer pressure and imitational effects. We find that fiscal rules correlate with lower deficits, but the positive link disappears when endogeneity is correctly addressed. However, when considering an index of fiscal rules’ design, we show that well-designed rules have a statistically significant impact on fiscal balances. We conduct several robustness tests and show that our results are not affected by weak instrument problems.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesca Caselli & Julien Reynaud, 2019. "Do Fiscal Rules Cause Better Fiscal Balances? A New Instrumental Variable Strategy," IMF Working Papers 2019/049, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2019/049
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; fiscal rule; Instrument variable (IV) estimation; Fiscal rules; Fiscal balances; strength index; treatment effect technique; core European Union country; outcome variable; rule effectiveness; rule dummy; Fiscal stance; Estimation techniques; Inflation targeting; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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