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The Phantom Menace in Agriculture: How Lagged Droughts Distort Input Decisions and Create Environmental Deadweight Loss

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  • Sun, Dingqiang
  • Qie, Xueting
  • Huang, Kaixing

Abstract

The overuse of chemical fertilizers is a global problem that has led to a series of adverse effects on the environment and human well-being. This study identifies a novel cause of fertilizer overuse: farmers’ irrational responses to lagged droughts. Employing unique plot-level data from maize production in China, we find that while drought shocks in any given year are independent, a drought in the previous year increases fertilizer use in the current year by 14.2%, with no positive effect on yield. A simple extrapolation suggests that this irrational response to lagged droughts causes an annual total fertilizer overuse of 1.1 million tons in China. This could translate to a monetary cost of 486 mil lion USD, drinking water pollution of 2-6 billion cubic meters, and carbon emissions of 8.9 million tons. Fertilizer overuse is expected to increase substantially under future climate change scenarios. We identify investment in irrigation, land consolidation toward high-productivity farmers, and the promotion of drought-tolerant crop varieties as key approaches to mitigating drought-induced fertilizer overuse.

Suggested Citation

  • Sun, Dingqiang & Qie, Xueting & Huang, Kaixing, 2025. "The Phantom Menace in Agriculture: How Lagged Droughts Distort Input Decisions and Create Environmental Deadweight Loss," MPRA Paper 126068, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:126068
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul Beaudry & Tim Willems, 2022. "On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 38-59, January.
    2. Brückner, Markus & Gradstein, Mark, 2013. "Effects of transitory shocks to aggregate output on consumption in poor countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 343-357.
    3. Bohr, Nils & Deisemann, Tim & Gollin, Douglas & Kosmowski, Frédéric & Lybbert, Travis J., 2024. "The seeds of misallocation: Fertilizer use and maize varietal misidentification in Ethiopia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    4. Fernando M. Aragón & Francisco Oteiza & Juan Pablo Rud, 2021. "Climate Change and Agriculture: Subsistence Farmers' Response to Extreme Heat," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 1-35, February.
    5. Beg, Sabrin & Islam, Mahnaz & Rahman, Khandker Wahedur, 2024. "Information and behavior: Evidence from fertilizer quantity recommendations in Bangladesh," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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