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Data transparency and GDP growth forecast errors

Author

Listed:
  • Gatti, Roberta
  • Lederman, Daniel
  • Islam, Asif M.
  • Nguyen, Ha
  • Lotfi, Rana
  • Emam Mousa, Mennatallah

Abstract

This paper examines the role of data transparency in explaining gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast errors - the difference between forecasted and realized growth. On average, a one standard deviation increase in the log of a country’s Statistical Capacity Index, a measure of data capacity and transparency, is associated with a decline in absolute forecast errors by 0.44 and 0.49 percentage points for World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts, respectively. The role of the overall data ecosystem, not just elements related to growth forecasting, is important for forecast accuracy. The study also establishes that forecast errors are large, the Middle East and North Africa region has the largest forecast errors among the world regions, and World Bank forecasts are more accurate and less optimistic than those from the IMF and the private sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Gatti, Roberta & Lederman, Daniel & Islam, Asif M. & Nguyen, Ha & Lotfi, Rana & Emam Mousa, Mennatallah, 2024. "Data transparency and GDP growth forecast errors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:140:y:2024:i:c:s0261560623001924
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2023.102991
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    Keywords

    GDP Growth Forecasts; Forecast Error; Optimism; Economic Outlook; Data Transparency; Statistical Capacity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O50 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - General
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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