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Midiendo los efectos de la política monetaria a través de las expectativas de mercado

  • Lahura, Erick

Este documento describe un modelo neokeynesiano para una pequeña economía abierta con dolarización parcial, que se asemeja al Modelo de Proyección Trimestral (MPT) del Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (Vega y otros, 2009), y estima un grupo importante de sus parámetros con métodos bayesianos. Se encuentra que algunos de los parámetros originales del MPT son validados empíricamente mientras que otros, como el peso de los componentes prospectivos (forward looking) de las ecuaciones de demanda y oferta agregadas, deberían ser más elevados. Los resultados además validan la operatividad de canales tradicionales de transmisión de política monetaria, como el de tasas de interés. Se encuentra además que el canal de expectativas se ha vuelto más prominente desde el año 2004.

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File URL: http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Revista-Estudios-Economicos/23/ree-23-lahura.pdf
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Article provided by Banco Central de Reserva del Perú in its journal Revista Estudios Económicos.

Volume (Year): (2012)
Issue (Month): 23 ()
Pages: 39-52

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Handle: RePEc:rbp:esteco:ree-23-03
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  1. Castillo, Paul & Montoro, Carlos & Tuesta, Vicente, 2009. "Un modelo de equilibrio general con dolarización para la economía peruana," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 17, pages 9-50.
  2. Gurkaynak, Refet S. & Sack, Brian T. & Swanson, Eric P., 2007. "Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 201-212, April.
  3. Diego Winkelried Quezada, 2005. "Tendencias comunes y análisis de la política monetaria en el Perú," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(3), pages 279-317, julio-sep.
  4. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Favero, Carlo A., 1999. "Information from financial markets and VAR measures of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 825-837, April.
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  6. Castillo, Paul & Perez, Fernando & Tuesta, Vicente, 2010. "Los Mecanismos de Transmisión de la Política Monetaria en Perú," Working Papers 2010-013, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  7. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2004. "What explains the stock market's reaction to Federal Reserve policy?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-16, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. David B. Gordon & Eric M. Leeper, 1993. "The dynamic impacts of monetary policy: an exercise in tentative identification," Working Paper 93-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  9. Quispe Misaico, Zenón, 2000. "Política monetaria en una economía con dolarización parcial: el caso del Perú," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 6.
  10. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1995. "Measuring monetary policy," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  11. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  12. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Daily Changes in Fed Funds Futures Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 567-582, 06.
  13. Ben Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr S. Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422, January.
  14. Lastrapes, William D. & Selgin, George, 1995. "The liquidity effect: Identifying short-run interest rate dynamics using long-run restrictions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 387-404.
  15. Rossini, Renzo & Vega, Marco, 2007. "El mecanismo de transmisión de la política monetaria en un entorno de dolarización financiera: El caso del Perú entre 1996 y 2006," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 14, pages 11-32.
  16. Christopher A. Sims, 1992. "Interpreting the Macroeconomic Time Series Facts: The Effects of Monetary Policy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1011, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  17. Stefan Gerlach & Frank Smets, 1995. "The monetary transmission mechanism: Evidence from the G-7 countries," BIS Working Papers 26, Bank for International Settlements.
  18. Christopher A. Sims, 2010. "But Economics Is Not an Experimental Science," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(2), pages 59-68, Spring.
  19. Renzo Rossini Miñán, 2002. "Aspectos de la adopción de un esquema de metas explícitas de inflación en el Perú," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 5(1), pages 47-67, June.
  20. Vega, Marco & Bigio, Saki & Florian, David & Llosa, Gonzalo & Miller, Shirley & Ramirez-Rondan, Nelson & Rodriguez, Donita & Salas, Jorge & Winkelried, Diego, 2009. "Un modelo semiestructural de proyección para la economía peruana," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 17, pages 51-83.
  21. Rudebusch, G.D., 1996. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?," Papers 269, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  22. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
  23. Sims, Christopher A & Zha, Tao, 1998. "Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 949-68, November.
  24. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
  25. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense? A Reply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 943-48, November.
  26. Lahura, Erick, 2010. "The Effects Of Monetary Policy Shocks In Peru: Semi-Structural Identification Using A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 2010-008, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  27. Salas, Jorge, 2011. "Estimación bayesiana de unmodelo de pequeña economía abierta con dolarización parcial," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 22, pages 41-62.
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