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Empirical Assessment of the Impact of Monetary Policy Communication on the Financial Market

Author

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  • Masahiko Shibamoto

    (Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, Japan)

Abstract

This paper proposes an empirical framework to explore the role of monetary policy communication. We develop an econometric methodology to impose restrictions for the identification of communication effects distinct from the effects of policy decisions. The empirical results support the hypothesis that both policy decision and communication factors are required to adequately capture the financial market reactions to monetary policy news. By applying a text mining approach focused on phrases that appear in press conferences on policy meeting days, we find that the communication factors identified are characterized by the policy intentions and preferences of the central bank.

Suggested Citation

  • Masahiko Shibamoto, 2016. "Empirical Assessment of the Impact of Monetary Policy Communication on the Financial Market," Discussion Paper Series DP2016-19, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
  • Handle: RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2016-19
    as

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    File URL: https://www.rieb.kobe-u.ac.jp/academic/ra/dp/English/DP2016-19.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2016
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    2. Thorbecke, Willem, 1997. "On Stock Market Returns and Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 635-654, June.
    3. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    4. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "Communication by Central Bank Committee Members: Different Strategies, Same Effectiveness?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 509-541, March.
    5. Edda Claus & Mardi Dungey, 2012. "U.S. Monetary Policy Surprises: Identification with Shifts and Rotations in the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1443-1453, October.
    6. Monika Piazzesi, 2002. "The Fed and Interest Rates - A High-Frequency Identification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 90-95, May.
    7. Masahiko Shibamoto & Minoru Tachibana, 2013. "The Effect of Unconventional Monetary Policy on the Macro Economy: Evidence from Japan's Quantitative Easing Policy Period," Discussion Paper Series DP2013-12, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    8. Donald W. K. Andrews, 1999. "Consistent Moment Selection Procedures for Generalized Method of Moments Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(3), pages 543-564, May.
    9. repec:pri:cepsud:161blinder is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Reeves, Rachel & Sawicki, Michael, 2007. "Do financial markets react to Bank of England communication?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 207-227, March.
    11. Yuzo Honda & Yoshihiro Kuroki & Minoru Tachibana, 2007. "An Injection Of Base Money At Zero Interest Rates: Empirical Evidence From The Japanese Experience 2001-2006," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 07-08, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    12. Michael Woodford, 2012. "Methods of policy accommodation at the interest-rate lower bound," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 185-288.
    13. Hall, Alastair R. & Inoue, Atsushi & Jana, Kalidas & Shin, Changmock, 2007. "Information in generalized method of moments estimation and entropy-based moment selection," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 488-512, June.
    14. Kiyotaka Nakashima & Masahiko Shibamoto & Koji Takahashi, 2017. "Identifying Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks," Discussion Paper Series DP2017-05, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Apr 2017.
    15. Yuzo Honda & Yoshihiro Kuroki, 2006. "Financial and Capital Markets' Responses to Changes in the Central Bank's Target Interest Rate: The Case of Japan," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(513), pages 812-842, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Youngjoon Lee & Soohyon Kim & Ki Young Park, 2019. "Measuring Monetary Policy Surprises Using Text Mining: The Case of Korea," Working Papers 2019-11, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    2. Yusuke Oshima & Yoichi Matsubayashi, 2018. "Monetary Policy Communication of the Bank of Japan: Computational Text Analysis," Discussion Papers 1816, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy communication; Policy surprise; Financial market; Event study; Text mining;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General

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