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The Long-Run Behaviour of the Relative Price of Primary Commodities: Statistical Evidence and Policy Implications

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  • David Sapsford
  • V.N.Balasubramanyam

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  • David Sapsford & V.N.Balasubramanyam, "undated". "The Long-Run Behaviour of the Relative Price of Primary Commodities: Statistical Evidence and Policy Implications," Working Papers ec7/94, Department of Economics, University of Lancaster.
    • Handle: RePEc:wuk:lanedp:ec7/94
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    1. D. Sapsford & P. Sarkar & H. W. Singer, 1992. "The prebisch‐singer terms of trade controversy revisited," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(3), pages 315-332, May.
    2. Sapsford, D, 1985. "The Statistical Debate on the Net Barter Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures: A Comment and Some Additional Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(379), pages 781-788, September.
    3. Grilli, Enzo R & Yang, Maw Cheng, 1988. "Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 2(1), pages 1-47, January.
    4. Eduardo Borensztein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 236-261, June.
    5. Spraos, John, 1980. "The Statistical Debate on the Net Barter Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(357), pages 107-128, March.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Peter Wickham, 1994. "Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 175-213, June.
    7. Powell, Andrew, 1991. "Commodity and Developing Country Terms of Trade: What Does the Long Run Show?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1485-1496, November.
    8. Winters,L. Alan & Sapsford,David (ed.), 1990. "Primary Commodity Prices," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521385503, January.
    9. Cuddington, John T & Urzua, Carlos M, 1989. "Trends and Cycles in the Net Barter Terms of Trade: A New Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 426-442, June.
    10. Sarkar, Prabirjit, 1986. "The Singer-Prebisch Hypothesis: A Statistical Evaluation," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(4), pages 355-371, December.
    11. Perron, Pierre, 1990. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-162, April.
    12. Eduardo Borensztein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 236-261, June.
    13. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Matthias G. Lutz, 1999. "Commodity terms of trade and individual countries' net barter terms of trade: Is there an empirical relationship?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 859-870.
    2. John-ren Chen, 1999. "The sources of trend and fluctuations of commodity prices," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 871-892.
    3. Sapsford, David & Singer, Hans, 1998. "The IMF, the world bank and commodity prices: A case of shifting sands?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(9), pages 1653-1660, September.
    4. Thomas H.W. Ziesemer, 2014. "Country terms of trade: trends, unit roots, over-differencing, endogeneity, time dummies, and heterogeneity," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 767-796, September.
    5. Ghoshray, Atanu & Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Wohar, Mark E., 2011. "Breaking Trends and the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: A Further Investigation," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 120387, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. David Sapsford & John-ren Chen, 1999. "The Prebisch-Singer thesis: a thesis for the new millennium? Introduction," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 843-849.
    7. Ghoshray, Atanu, 2011. "A reexamination of trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 242-251, July.
    8. Surajit Deb, 2003. "Terms of Trade and Supply Response of Indian Agriculture: Analysis in Cointegration Framework," Working papers 115, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    9. Labrousse, Agnès, 2010. "Nouvelle économie du développement et essais cliniques randomisés : une mise en perspective d’un outil de preuve et de gouvernement," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 7.
    10. Prabirjit Sarkar, 2005. "Rising manufacture exports and terms of trade: the case study of Korea," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 5(2), pages 83-88, April.
    11. Hadass, Yael S & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 2003. "Terms-of-Trade Shocks and Economic Performance, 1870-1940: Prebisch and Singer Revisited," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(3), pages 629-656, April.
    12. David Sapsford & V. N. Balasubramanyam, 1999. "Trend and volatility in the net barter terms of trade, 1900-92: new results from the application of a (not so) new method," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 851-857.
    13. José Antonio Ocampo & María Angela Parra, 2004. "The commodity terms of trade and their strategic implications for development," International Trade 0403001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Chen, John-Ren & Sapsford, David, 1997. "Economic development and policy: Professor Sir Hans Singer's contributions to development economics," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(11), pages 1853-1856, November.
    15. Radelet Steven & Sachs Jeffrey & Lee Jong-Wha, 2001. "The Determinants and Prospects of Economic Growth in Asia," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 1-29.
    16. Luis Eduardo Arango & Fernando Arias & Luz Adriana Flórez, 2008. "Trends, Fluctuations, and Determinants of Commodity Prices," Borradores de Economia 4734, Banco de la Republica.
    17. Bloch, Harry & Sapsford, David, 1997. "Some estimates of Prebisch and Singer effects on the terms of trade between primary producers and manufacturers," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(11), pages 1873-1884, November.

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