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Commodity terms of trade and individual countries' net barter terms of trade: Is there an empirical relationship?


  • Matthias G. Lutz

    (Institute of Economics, University of St. Gallen, Switzerland)


This paper examines the statistical relationship between aggregate commodity terms of trade and the net barter terms of trade of 66 non-oil developing countries. Stationarity of the estimated long-run equation is tested for each country using Engle-Granger ADF tests. Four different commodity terms of trade series are examined. For more than half the sample a stationary long-run relationship is detected. The responsiveness of the country terms of trade to the overall index varies considerably between countries. These findings suggest that the long-term trend in the overall terms of trade is still relevant to developing countries today. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthias G. Lutz, 1999. "Commodity terms of trade and individual countries' net barter terms of trade: Is there an empirical relationship?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 859-870.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jintdv:v:11:y:1999:i:6:p:859-870 DOI: 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1328(199909/10)11:6<859::AID-JID632>3.0.CO;2-H

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Bleaney, Michael F & Greenaway, David, 1993. "Long-Run Trends in the Relative Price of Primary Commodities and in the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 349-363, July.
    2. Lutz, Matthias G, 1999. "A General Test of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 44-57, February.
    3. Powell, Andrew, 1991. "Commodity and Developing Country Terms of Trade: What Does the Long Run Show?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1485-1496, November.
    4. Prebisch, Raúl, 1950. "The economic development of Latin America and its principal problems," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 29973, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    5. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    6. Sapsford, David & Balasubramanyam, V. N., 1994. "The long-run behavior of the relative price of primary commodities: Statistical evidence and policy implications," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(11), pages 1737-1745, November.
    7. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter NUNNENKAMP, "undated". "Why Economic Growth Has Been Weak in Arab Countries: The Role of Exogenous Shocks, Economic Policy Failure and Institutional Defiencies," Middle East and North Africa 330400047, EcoMod.
    2. Paul Cashin & Catherine Pattillo, 2006. "African terms of trade and the commodity terms of trade: close cousins or distant relatives?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 845-859.
    3. Thomas H.W. Ziesemer, 2014. "Country terms of trade: trends, unit roots, over-differencing, endogeneity, time dummies, and heterogeneity," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 767-796, September.
    4. Konstantin M. Wacker, 2011. "The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Developing Countries’ Terms of Trade," WIDER Working Paper Series 006, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Surajit Deb, 2003. "Terms of Trade and Supply Response of Indian Agriculture: Analysis in Cointegration Framework," Working papers 115, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    6. Konstantin M. Wacker, 2011. "Do multinationals beat down developing countries' export prices? The impact of FDI on net barter terms of trade," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 211, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Paul Newbold & Stephan Pfaffenzeller & Anthony Rayner, 2005. "How well are long-run commodity price series characterized by trend components?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 479-494.
    8. Nunnenkamp, Peter, 2003. "Systemic factors and economic development in Islamic countries," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 4319, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    9. repec:bla:worlde:v:39:y:2016:i:12:p:1974-1999 is not listed on IDEAS

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