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A General Test of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis

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  • Lutz, Matthias G

Abstract

This paper examines jointly the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis of a long-term decline in the relative price of primary commodities and the appropriate framework in which it is tested. A general model is estimated which nests the univariate and bivariate time-series models used in the past literature. The results suggest that the econometric models estimated in the majority of previous studies strongly support the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis and reject recent findings--that the terms of trade are characterized by infrequent negative shocks--in favor of a long-term negative trend. Copyright 1999 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd

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  • Lutz, Matthias G, 1999. "A General Test of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 44-57, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:3:y:1999:i:1:p:44-57
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    Cited by:

    1. Bunzel, Helle & Vogelsang, Timothy J., 2005. "Powerful Trend Function Tests That Are Robust to Strong Serial Correlation, With an Application to the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 381-394, October.
    2. Matthias G. Lutz, 1999. "Commodity terms of trade and individual countries' net barter terms of trade: Is there an empirical relationship?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 859-870.
    3. Diego Bastourre & Jorge Carrera & Javier Ibarlucia, 2008. "Commodity Prices in Argentina. What Does Move the Wind?," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(1), pages 1-30, January-J.
    4. Thomas H.W. Ziesemer, 2014. "Country terms of trade: trends, unit roots, over-differencing, endogeneity, time dummies, and heterogeneity," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 767-796, September.
    5. Syed Jawaid & Abdul Waheed, 2011. "Effects of Terms of Trade and its Volatility on Economic Growth: A Cross Country Empirical Investigation," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 18(2), pages 217-229, December.
    6. Awel, Ahmed Mohammed, 2012. "Terms of Trade Volatility and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 45453, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Diego Bastourre & Jorge Carrera & Javier Ibarlucia, 2008. "Commodity Prices in Argentina: What Moves the Wind?," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(51), pages 43-81, April - S.
    8. Muradian, Roldan & O'Connor, Martin & Martinez-Alier, Joan, 2002. "Embodied pollution in trade: estimating the 'environmental load displacement' of industrialised countries," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 51-67, April.
    9. Paul Cashin & C. John McCDermott, 2002. "The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(2), pages 1-2.
    10. José Luis Arrufat & Alberto Martín Díaz Cafferata & José Antonio Viceconte, 2011. "Terms of trade cycles in extreme land abundant countries, 1870-2009. Spectral analysis," Working Papers 05/11, Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social.
    11. repec:bla:afrdev:v:29:y:2017:i:s1:p:27-41 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Jawaid, Syed Tehseen & Raza, Syed Ali, 2013. "Effects of terms of trade on growth performance of India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 940-946.
    13. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2007. "A simple, robust and powerful test of the trend hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1302-1330, December.
    14. Bastourre, Diego, 2008. "Cambio fundamental o especulación financiera en los mercados de commodities? Un modelo con ajuste no lineal al equilibrio
      [Structural break or financial speculation in commodity markets? A multivar      ," MPRA Paper 9910, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. André Varella Mollick & João Ricardo Faria & Pedro H. Albuquerque & Miguel A. León-Ledesma, 2008. "Can globalisation stop the decline in commodities' terms of trade?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(5), pages 683-701, September.
    16. Christian Gillitzer & Jonathan Kearns, 2005. "Long-term Patterns in Australia’s Terms of Trade," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    17. Anna Persson & Timo Teräsvirta, 2003. "The net barter terms of trade: A smooth transition approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 81-97.
    18. José Antonio Ocampo & María Angela Parra, 2004. "The commodity terms of trade and their strategic implications for development," International Trade 0403001, EconWPA.
    19. Jawaid, Syed Tehseen & Raza, Syed Ali, 2012. "Effects of terms of trade and its volatility on economic growth in India," MPRA Paper 38998, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Andre Varella Mollick & Joao Ricardo Faria & Pedro H. Albuquerque & Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma, 2005. "Can Globalisation Stop the Decline in Commodities' Terms of Trade? The Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis Revisited"," Studies in Economics 0510, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    21. Konstantin M. Wacker, 2011. "Do multinationals beat down developing countries' export prices? The impact of FDI on net barter terms of trade," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 211, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    22. María Virginia Mattheus & Alberto Martín Díaz Cafferata, 2011. "Co-movements in terms of trade volatility in land-abundant countries," Working Papers 07/11, Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social.
    23. Paul Newbold & Stephan Pfaffenzeller & Anthony Rayner, 2005. "How well are long-run commodity price series characterized by trend components?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 479-494.
    24. Diego Bastourre, 2008. "Inversores Financieros en los Mercados de Commodities: Un Modelo con Dinámica de Ajuste no Lineal al Equilibrio," Department of Economics, Working Papers 072, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.

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