From Trends in Commodities and Manufactures to Country Terms of Trade
The debate about the Prebisch-Singer thesis has focussed on primary commodities with some extensions to manufactures. As we think that the link between the terms of trade and longrun development, growth and convergence is the ability of exports to enhance investment through importing capital goods we analyse trends in country terms-of-trade. We use two data sets. We find that for the poor countries the terms of trade of goods and services are falling at a rate that is less negative than for net-barter terms of trade and those found earlier for primary commodities.
|Date of creation:||2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: P.O. Box 616, 6200 MD Maastricht|
Phone: (31) (0)43 3883875
Fax: (31) (0)43 3216518
Web page: http://www.merit.unu.edu/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Habiyaremye, Alexis & Ziesemer, Thomas, 2006. "Absorptive Capacity and Export Diversification in Sub-Saharan African Countries," MERIT Working Papers 030, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
- Paul Cashin & Catherine Pattillo, 2006. "African terms of trade and the commodity terms of trade: close cousins or distant relatives?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 845-859.
- David I. Harvey & Neil M. Kellard & Jakob B. Madsen & Mark E. Wohar, 2010. "The Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: Four Centuries of Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 367-377, May.
- Cuddington, John T, 2010. "Long-term trends in the Real real prices of primary commodities: Inflation bias and the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 72-76, June.
- Habiyaremye, Alexis & Ziesemer, Thomas, 2008. "Export Demand Elasticities as Determinants of Growth: Estimates for Mauritius," MERIT Working Papers 072, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
- Sapsford, David & Balasubramanyam, V. N., 1994.
"The long-run behavior of the relative price of primary commodities: Statistical evidence and policy implications,"
Elsevier, vol. 22(11), pages 1737-1745, November.
- David Sapsford & V.N.Balasubramanyam, . "The Long-Run Behaviour of the Relative Price of Primary Commodities: Statistical Evidence and Policy Implications," Working Papers ec7/94, Department of Economics, University of Lancaster.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 1993.
"Unit Roots in Macroeconomic Time Series: Some Critical Issues,"
NBER Working Papers
4368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 1993. "Unit roots in macroeconomic time series: some critical issues," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 13-44.
- David Roodman, 2009.
"A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(1), pages 135-158, 02.
- Maurice Bun & Frank Windmeijer, 2007.
"The weak instrument problem of the system GMM estimator in dynamic panel data models,"
CeMMAP working papers
CWP08/07, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Maurice J. G. Bun & Frank Windmeijer, 2010. "The weak instrument problem of the system GMM estimator in dynamic panel data models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 13(1), pages 95-126, 02.
- Maurice J.G. Bun & Frank Windmeijer, 2007. "The Weak Instrument Problem of the System GMM Estimator in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 07/595, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
- Maurice J.G. Bun & Frank Windmeijer, 2009. "The Weak Instrument Problem of the System GMM Estimator in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-086/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995.
"Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
- M Arellano & O Bover, 1990. "Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models," CEP Discussion Papers dp0007, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- David Roodman, 2006.
"How to Do xtabond2: An Introduction to "Difference" and "System" GMM in Stata,"
103, Center for Global Development.
- David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
- Bleaney, Michael F & Greenaway, David, 1993. "Long-Run Trends in the Relative Price of Primary Commodities and in the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 349-63, July.
- Dennis Epple & Bennett McCallum, .
"Simultaneous Equation Econometrics: The Missing Example,"
GSIA Working Papers
2004-E6, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Dennis Epple & Bennett T. Mccallum, 2006. "Simultaneous Equation Econometrics: The Missing Example," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(2), pages 374-384, April.
- Bilge Erten, 2011. "North-South terms-of-trade trends from 1960 to 2006," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 171-184.
- R Blundell & Steven Bond, .
"Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data model,"
W14&104., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
- Richard Blundell & Steve Bond, 1995. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," IFS Working Papers W95/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Blundell, R. & Bond, S., 1995. "Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Economics Papers 104, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- World Bank, 2009. "World Development Indicators 2009," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 4367, February.
- Christine Mutz & Thomas Ziesemer, 2008.
"Simultaneous estimation of income and price elasticities of export demand, scale economies and total factor productivity growth for Brazil,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(22), pages 2921-2937.
- Mutz Christine & Ziesemer Thomas, 2005. "Simultaneous Estimation of Income and Price Elasticities of Export Demand, Scale Economies and Total Factor Productivity Growth for Brazil," Research Memorandum 004, Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
- Bidarkota, Prasad & Crucini, Mario J, 2000.
"Commodity Prices and the Terms of Trade,"
Review of International Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(4), pages 647-66, November.
- Ardeni, Pier Giorgio & Wright, Brian, 1992. "The Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: A Reappraisal Independent of Stationarity Hypotheses," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(413), pages 803-12, July.
- Bardhan, Pranab K & Lewis, Sydney, 1970.
"Models of Growth with Imported Inputs,"
London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 37(148), pages 373-85, November.
- Powell, A., 1989.
"Commodity And Developing Country Terms Of Trade, What Does The Long Run Show?,"
Economics Series Working Papers
9980, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Powell, Andrew, 1991. "Commodity and Developing Country Terms of Trade: What Does the Long Run Show?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1485-96, November.
- Bloch, Harry & Sapsford, David, 2000. "Whither the Terms of Trade? An Elaboration of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(4), pages 461-81, July.
- Jawaid, Syed Tehseen & Raza, Syed Ali, 2012. "Effects of terms of trade and its volatility on economic growth in India," MPRA Paper 38998, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Matthias G. Lutz, 1999. "Commodity terms of trade and individual countries' net barter terms of trade: Is there an empirical relationship?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 859-870.
- Hans Singer, 1999. "Beyond terms of trade-convergence and divergence," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 911-916.
- Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
- Lutz, Matthias G, 1999. "A General Test of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 44-57, February.
- Prebisch, Raúl, 1950. "The economic development of Latin America and its principal problems," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 29973, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
- Konstantin M. Wacker, 2011. "Do multinationals beat down developing countries' export prices? The impact of FDI on net barter terms of trade," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 211, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
- Ziesemer, Thomas HW, 1994. "Economic Development and Endogenous Terms-of-Trade Determination: Review and Reinterpretation of the Prebisch-Singer Thesis," MPRA Paper 54864, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Sarkar, Prabirjit & Singer, H. W., 1991. "Manufactured exports of developing countries and their terms of trade since 1965," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 333-340, April.
- Cuddington, John T & Urzua, Carlos M, 1989. "Trends and Cycles in the Net Barter Terms of Trade: A New Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 426-42, June.
- Bleaney, Michael & Greenaway, David, 2001. "The impact of terms of trade and real exchange rate volatility on investment and growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 491-500, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:unm:unumer:2010022. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ad Notten)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.