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Effects of terms of trade and its volatility on economic growth in India

  • Jawaid, Syed Tehseen
  • Raza, Syed Ali

This study investigates the effect of terms of trade and its volatility on economic growth in India by using the annual time series data from the period 1980 to 2010. Cointegration results suggest the significant positive long run relationship between terms of trade and economic growth. On the other hand, volatility of terms of trade has negative and significant effect on economic growth. Sensitivity analysis confirms that the results are robust. It is concluded that beneficial and less volatile terms of trade is better for economic growth in India. Policy makers should focus on diversifying Indian exports to minimize the volatility in terms of trade to ensure economic growth in the country.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/38998/1/MPRA_paper_38998.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 38998.

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Date of creation: 10 Apr 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:38998
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  1. Robert J. Barro, 1996. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study," NBER Working Papers 5698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Syed Jawaid & Abdul Waheed, 2011. "Effects of Terms of Trade and its Volatility on Economic Growth: A Cross Country Empirical Investigation," Transition Studies Review, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 217-229, December.
  3. Hock Wong, 2010. "Terms of trade and economic growth in Japan and Korea: an empirical analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 139-158, February.
  4. Archanun Kohpaiboon, 2003. "Foreign trade regimes and the FDI-Growth Nexus: a case study of Thailand," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 55-69.
  5. Bouakez, Hafedh & Kano, Takashi, 2008. "Terms of trade and current account fluctuations: The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect revisited," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 260-281, March.
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  7. Yael S. Hadass & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2001. "Terms of Trade Shocks and Economic Performance 1870-1940: Prebisch and Singer Revisited," NBER Working Papers 8188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Arize, A. C., 1996. "Cointegration test of a long-run relation between the trade balance and the terms of trade in sixteen countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 203-215.
  9. Mendoza, Enrique G., 1997. "Terms-of-trade uncertainty and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 323-356, December.
  10. Piotr Misztal, 2010. "The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect. Theory and Practice in Poland," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 13(38), pages 129-146, December.
  11. Bleaney, Michael & Greenaway, David, 2001. "The impact of terms of trade and real exchange rate volatility on investment and growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 491-500, August.
  12. Kaneko, Akihiko, 2000. "Terms of trade, economic growth, and trade patterns: a small open-economy case," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 169-181, October.
  13. Paul Cashin & C. John McDermott, 2001. "The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices; Small Trends and Big Variability," IMF Working Papers 01/68, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Yanikkaya, Halit, 2003. "Trade openness and economic growth: a cross-country empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 57-89, October.
  15. Shigeyuki HAMORI, 2008. "Trade Balances and the Terms of Trade in G-7 Countries: Penal Cointegration Approach," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 8(2), pages 13-22.
  16. Paul Cashin & C. McDermott, 2002. "Terms of Trade Shocks and the Current Account: Evidence from Five Industrial Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 219-235, July.
  17. Goel, Rajeev K. & Ram, Rati, 2001. "Irreversibility of R&D investment and the adverse effect of uncertainty: Evidence from the OECD countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 287-291, May.
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