IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Terms of Trade Volatility and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

  • Awel, Ahmed Mohammed

This paper investigated the effect of terms of trade growth and its volatility on economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. I employed dynamic panel data models of difference and system GMM that could account biases associated with endogeneity of explanatory variables and problems induced by unobserved country specific characteristics. I used both net barter terms of trade and income terms of trade as a measure of terms of trade for the entire analysis of this paper. Using data from 1985 to 2010, I found that the net barter terms of trade and income terms of trade growth has positive and significant effect on economic growth. Furthermore, the result proved that volatility of net barter terms of trade and income terms of trade have negative and significant effect on economic growth. Finally, this result is found to be robust using alternative volatility measures.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 45453.

in new window

Date of creation: Aug 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:45453
Contact details of provider: Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2008. "Globalization and the Great Divergence: Terms of Trade Booms and Volatility in the Poor Periphery 1782-1913," Working Papers 08-07, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
  2. Syed tehseen, jawaid & Abdul, waheed, 2011. "Effects of Terms of Trade and its Volatility on Economic Growth: A Cross Country Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 32694, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Salim B. Furth, 2010. "Terms of Trade Volatility and Precautionary Savings in Developing Economies," DEGIT Conference Papers c015_013, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  4. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth," IMF Working Papers 12/12, International Monetary Fund.
  5. M Arellano & O Bover, 1990. "Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models," CEP Discussion Papers dp0007, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  6. Sapsford, D, 1985. "The Statistical Debate on the Net Barter Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures: A Comment and Some Additional Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(379), pages 781-88, September.
  7. Lutz, Matthias, 1994. "The effects of volatility in the terms of trade on output growth: New evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(12), pages 1959-1975, December.
  8. Richard Blundell & Steve Bond, 1995. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," IFS Working Papers W95/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  9. David S. Jacks & Kevin H. O'Rourke & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2009. "Commodity Price Volatility and World Market Integration since 1700," NBER Working Papers 14748, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Dungey, Mardi, 2004. "Identifying terms of trade effects in real exchange rate movements: evidence from Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 217-235, April.
  11. Arize, A. C., 1996. "Cointegration test of a long-run relation between the trade balance and the terms of trade in sixteen countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 203-215.
  12. Kim, So Young, 2007. "Openness, External Risk, and Volatility: Implications for the Compensation Hypothesis," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 61(01), pages 181-216, January.
  13. Mendoza, Enrique G., 1997. "Terms-of-trade uncertainty and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 323-356, December.
  14. Lutz, Matthias G, 1999. "A General Test of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 44-57, February.
  15. Sarkar, Prabirjit, 1986. "The Singer-Prebisch Hypothesis: A Statistical Evaluation," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(4), pages 355-71, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:45453. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.