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Effects of Terms of Trade and its Volatility on Economic Growth: A Cross Country Empirical Investigation

  • Syed tehseen, jawaid
  • Abdul, waheed

This study examines the effects of terms of trade and its volatility on economic growth for a sample of 94 developed and developing countries, using five year average annual data from 2004 to 2008. The cross country ordinary least square estimation results indicate significant positive effect of terms of trade on economic growth. Furthermore, volatility of terms of trade has significant positive effect on economic growth. To test the robustness of initial results, sensitivity analysis has been performed using different additional variables, sample size and various proxies of volatility variable. The initial results were found robust despite the inclusion of various variables in the basic model and use of various proxies for volatility of terms of trade.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/32694/1/MPRA_paper_32694.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 32694.

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Date of creation: 07 May 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:32694
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  1. Robert J. Barro, 1996. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study," NBER Working Papers 5698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Nishat Fatima, 2010. "Analysing the Terms of Trade Effect for Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2010:59, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
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  12. Yanikkaya, Halit, 2003. "Trade openness and economic growth: a cross-country empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 57-89, October.
  13. Paul Cashin & C. John McDermott, 2001. "The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices; Small Trends and Big Variability," IMF Working Papers 01/68, International Monetary Fund.
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  16. Mendoza, Enrique G., 1997. "Terms-of-trade uncertainty and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 323-356, December.
  17. Bleaney, Michael & Greenaway, David, 2001. "The impact of terms of trade and real exchange rate volatility on investment and growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 491-500, August.
  18. Bouakez, Hafedh & Kano, Takashi, 2008. "Terms of trade and current account fluctuations: The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect revisited," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 260-281, March.
  19. Lutz, Matthias G, 1999. "A General Test of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 44-57, February.
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