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The Terms of Trade and Economic Growth in the Periphery 1870-1938

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  • Christopher Blattman
  • Jason Hwang
  • Jeffrey G. Williamson

Abstract

The contending fundamental determinants of growth -- institutions, geography and culture --exhibit far more persistence than do the growth rates they are supposed to explain. So, what exogenous shocks might account for the variance around those persistent fundamentals? The terms of trade seems to be one good place to look. Using a panel data base for 35 countries, this paper estimates the impact of terms of trade volatility and secular change between 1870 and 1938. We find that volatility was much more important than secular change. Additionally, both effects were asymmetric between core and periphery, findings that speak directly to the terms of trade debates that have raged since Prebisch and Singer wrote more than 50 years ago.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Blattman & Jason Hwang & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2003. "The Terms of Trade and Economic Growth in the Periphery 1870-1938," NBER Working Papers 9940, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9940
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre JACQUET & Alexis ATLANI & Marwan LISSER, 2017. "Policy responses to terms of trade shocks," Working Papers P205, FERDI.
    2. Josef Falkinger & Volker Grossmann, 2005. "Institutions and Development: The Interaction Between Trade Regime and Political System," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 231-272, September.
    3. Blaise Gnimassoun & C. John Anyanwu, 2018. "The Diaspora And Economic Development In Africa," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-16, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    4. Serge Coulombe, 2007. "Globalization and Regional Disparity: A Canadian Case Study," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 1-17.
    5. Yoshiaki Sugimoto, 2006. "Endogenous Trade Policy: Political Struggle in the Growth Process," ISER Discussion Paper 0678, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    6. Syed Jawaid & Abdul Waheed, 2011. "Effects of Terms of Trade and its Volatility on Economic Growth: A Cross Country Empirical Investigation," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 18(2), pages 217-229, December.
    7. Luis A. V. Catão, 2007. "Sudden Stops and Currency Drops: A Historical Look," NBER Chapters,in: The Decline of Latin American Economies: Growth, Institutions, and Crises, pages 243-290 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Zouheir Abida, 2011. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Growth: An Empirical Study for the Maghreb Countries," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 2, pages 45-61, July.
    9. Luis Catão & Sandeep Kapur, 2004. "Missing Link; Volatility and the Debt Intolerance Paradox," IMF Working Papers 04/51, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Piotr Misztal, 2012. "Terms of Trade and Economic Growth in Poland in the period 1980-2009," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 15(45), pages 51-67, December.
    11. Atrayee Ghosh Roy & Hendrik Van den Berg, 2009. "Budget deficits and U.S. economic growth," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 3015-3030.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

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