The Terms of Trade and Economic Growth in the Periphery 1870-1938
The contending fundamental determinants of growth -- institutions, geography and culture --exhibit far more persistence than do the growth rates they are supposed to explain. So, what exogenous shocks might account for the variance around those persistent fundamentals? The terms of trade seems to be one good place to look. Using a panel data base for 35 countries, this paper estimates the impact of terms of trade volatility and secular change between 1870 and 1938. We find that volatility was much more important than secular change. Additionally, both effects were asymmetric between core and periphery, findings that speak directly to the terms of trade debates that have raged since Prebisch and Singer wrote more than 50 years ago.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Deaton, Angus & Miller, Ron, 1996.
"International Commodity Prices, Macroeconomic Performance and Politics in Sub-Saharan Africa,"
Journal of African Economies,
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 5(3), pages 99-191, October.
- Deaton, A-S & Miller, R-I, 1995. "International Commodity Prices, Macroeconomic Performance, and Politics in Sub-Saharan Africa," Princeton Studies in International Economics 79, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
- Easterly, William & Kremer, Michael & Pritchett, Lant & Summers, Lawrence H., 1993.
"Good policy or good luck?: Country growth performance and temporary shocks,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 459-483, December.
- William Easterly & Michael Kremer & Lant Pritchett & Lawrence H. Summers, 1993. "Good Policy or Good Luck? Country Growth Performance and Temporary Shocks," NBER Working Papers 4474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Peter H. Lindert & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2003.
"Does Globalization Make the World More Unequal?,"
in: Globalization in Historical Perspective, pages 227-276
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- M. Ayhan Kose & Raymond Riezman, 2013.
"Trade shocks and macroeconomic fluctuations in Africa,"
World Scientific Book Chapters,
in: International Trade Agreements and Political Economy, chapter 19, pages 369-394
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Kose, M. Ayhan & Riezman, Raymond, 2001. "Trade shocks and macroeconomic fluctuations in Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 55-80, June.
- M. Ayhan Kose & Raymond Riezman, 1999. "Trade Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Africa," CSGR Working papers series 43/99, Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation (CSGR), University of Warwick.
- M. Ayhan Kose & Raymond Riezman, 1999. "Trade Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Africa," CESifo Working Paper Series 203, CESifo Group Munich.
- Bleaney, Michael F & Greenaway, David, 1993. "Long-Run Trends in the Relative Price of Primary Commodities and in the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 349-63, July.
- Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1994.
"Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
4959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December.
- Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997.
"I Just Ran Two Million Regressions,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-83, May.
- Lant Pritchett, 1997.
"Divergence, Big Time,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 3-17, Summer.
- Bloch, Harry & Sapsford, David, 2000. "Whither the Terms of Trade? An Elaboration of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(4), pages 461-81, July.
- Bleaney, Michael & Greenaway, David, 2001. "The impact of terms of trade and real exchange rate volatility on investment and growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 491-500, August.
- Krueger, Anne O, 1974. "The Political Economy of the Rent-Seeking Society," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(3), pages 291-303, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9940. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.