Terms of Trade Shocks and the Current Account: Evidence from Five Industrial Countries
What is the effect of shocks to the terms of trade on a country's current account position? The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect predicts that an adverse shock to the terms of trade will worsen the current account balance; in contrast, the prediction of intertemporal models of the current account is dependent on the duration of the shock. This paper examines several features of the terms of trade series of five OECD countries, and the relationship between terms of trade shocks and the current account balance. Median shocks to the terms of trade are found to be highly persistent, yet with a large transitory component, and to account for only a small share of the variability of current account balances in Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States. In contrast, terms of trade shocks are found to account for a relatively large proportion of the variability of current account balances in Australia and New Zealand. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2002
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992.
"Relative Price Movements in Dynamic General Equilibrium Models of International Trade,"
92-25, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "Relative Price Movements in Dynamic General Equilibrium Models of International Trade," NBER Working Papers 4243, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "Relative price movements in dynamic general equilibrium models of international trade," Working Paper 9213, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1991.
"Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation,"
Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
- Assaf Razin, 1993.
"The Dynamic-Optimizing Approach to the Current Account: Theory and Evidence,"
NBER Working Papers
4334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Razin, A., 1993. "The Dynamic-Optimizing Approach to the Current Account: Theory and Evidence," Papers 2-93, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris, 1987.
"Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
847R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1988.
- Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January.
- Otto, G., 1995. "Terms of Trade Shocks and the Austraian Economy," Papers 95/23, New South Wales - School of Economics.
- Ahmed, Shaghil & Park, Jae Ha, 1994. "Sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in small open economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-36.
- Enrique G. Mendoza, 1992. "The Terms of Trade and Economic Fluctuations," IMF Working Papers 92/98, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:13:y:2002:i:3:p:219-235. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.