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The Terms of Trade and Economic Fluctuations

Author

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  • Mr. Enrique G. Mendoza

Abstract

A three-good, stochastic intertemporal equilibrium model of a small open economy is used to examine the link between terms of trade and business cycles. Equilibrium co-movements of model economies representing industrial and developing countries are computed and compared with the stylized facts of 30 countries. The results show that terms-of-trade shocks account for half of observed output variability and that the model mimics the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect and produces large deviations from purchasing power parity. The elasticity of substitution between tradable and nontradable goods and the persistence of the shocks play a key role in producing these results.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Enrique G. Mendoza, 1992. "The Terms of Trade and Economic Fluctuations," IMF Working Papers 1992/098, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1992/098
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Paul Cashin & C. McDermott, 2002. "Terms of Trade Shocks and the Current Account: Evidence from Five Industrial Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 219-235, July.
    2. Stéphane Pallage & Michel A. Robe, 2001. "Foreign Aid and the Business Cycle," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(4), pages 641-672, November.
    3. Mr. Paul Cashin & Mr. C. John McDermott, 1998. "Terms of Trade Shocks and the Current Account," IMF Working Papers 1998/177, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Dudley, L., 1980. "Macroeconomic Interdependence and the Terms of Trade," Cahiers de recherche 8014, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    5. Mupu Mamputu, Élie, 2020. "Termes de l'échange, balance commerciale et performances économiques : examen de l'effet Harberger - Laursen - Metzler en République Démocratique du Congo [Terms of trade, trade balance and economi," MPRA Paper 99342, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2020.
    6. Osman Suliman, 2003. "Endogenous Restrictions for Least Developed Economies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(2), pages 423-434, May.
    7. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "Relative Price Movements in Dynamic General Equilibrium Models of International Trade," Working Papers 92-25, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    8. Razin, Assaf, 1993. "The Dynamic-Optimizing Approach to the Current Account: Theory and Evidence," Foerder Institute for Economic Research Working Papers 275573, Tel-Aviv University > Foerder Institute for Economic Research.
    9. AKITOBY, Bernardin, 1997. "Termes de l'échange endogènes et cycles économiques réels : une application à la Côte-d'Ivoire," Cahiers de recherche 9701, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    10. Paul Cashin & C. John McDermott, 2003. "Intertemporal Substitution and Terms‐of‐Trade Shocks," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(4), pages 604-618, September.
    11. Bernardin Akitoby, 1997. "Termes de l'échange endogène et cycles économiques réels : une application à la Côte-d'Ivoire," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 48(6), pages 1485-1508.
    12. International Monetary Fund, 1999. "Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of Terms-of-Trade Shocks: The Experience of the Oil-Exporting Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 1999/134, International Monetary Fund.

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