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The Singer-Prebisch Hypothesis: A Statistical Evaluation

Listed author(s):
  • Sarkar, Prabirjit

The statistical objections raised against the Singer-Prebisch thesis regarding the secular decline in the terms of trade of primary products in relation to manufactures, do not have as sound a basis as is generally supposed they have on a priori grounds. The projection of that historical experience into the post-war years as made by H. W. Singer and R. Prebisch also holds good until the oil crisis years of the 1970s; it would hold true up to 1983 if oil and OPEC are exc luded as a special case. With the decline in the terms of trade of primary products, the trading terms of the developing region vis-a- vis the developed one also deteriorated. In view of increasing manufacture exports by the developing region, it is doubtful how far the two terms-of-trade indexes will move in the same direction. Copyright 1986 by Oxford University Press.

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Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Cambridge Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 10 (1986)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 355-371

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Handle: RePEc:oup:cambje:v:10:y:1986:i:4:p:355-71
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