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Intermediate imports, the terms of trade, and the dynamics of the exchange rate and current account

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  • Obstfeld, Maurice

Abstract

This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of an increase in the price of an imported intermediate production input. The framework of the analysis is a small open economy with abating exchange rate and endogenous terms if trade, in which saving depends on residents'(variable) rate of time preference. Contrary to popular conceptions, an intermediate price shock may lead to an appreciation of the exchange rate in both the short run and the long run, and is likely to occasion a current-account surplus. The terms of trade between foreign and domestic finished goods always improve in the long run.
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  • Obstfeld, Maurice, 1980. "Intermediate imports, the terms of trade, and the dynamics of the exchange rate and current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 461-480, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:10:y:1980:i:4:p:461-480
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    1. Ronald E. Findlay & Carlos Alfredo Rodriguez, 1977. "Intermediate Imports and Macroeconomic Policy under Flexible Exchange Rates," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 10(2), pages 208-217, May.
    2. Krugman, Paul & Taylor, Lance, 1978. "Contractionary effects of devaluation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 445-456, August.
    3. Van Duyne, Carl, 1979. "The macroeconomic effects of commodity market disruptions in open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 559-582, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Carmen M. Reinhart, 1991. "Fiscal Policy, the Real Exchange Rate, and Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(3), pages 506-524, September.
    2. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1984. "Tests of Monetary and Portfolio Balance Models of Exchange Rate Determination," NBER Chapters,in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 239-260 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1982. "Oil Prices, Welfare and the Trade Balance: An Intertemporal Approach," NBER Working Papers 0991, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Nancy Peregrim Marion & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1982. "Structural Differences and Macroeconomic Adjustment to Oil Price Increases in a Three-Country Model," NBER Working Papers 0839, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Nancy Peregrim Marion, 1981. "Anticipated and Unanticipated Oil Price Increases and the Current Account," NBER Working Papers 0759, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Alan V. Deardorff, 2016. "What Do We (and Others) Mean by "The Terms of Trade"?," Working Papers 651, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    7. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1983. "Intertemporal price speculation and the optimal current-account deficit," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 135-145, August.
    8. Paul Krugman, 1983. "Oil Shocks and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Chapters,in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 259-284 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Charles Wyplosz, 1991. "On the real exchange rate effect of German unification," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 127(1), pages 1-17, March.
    10. Tarlok Singh, 2007. "Intertemporal Optimizing Models Of Trade And Current Account Balance: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 25-64, February.
    11. Paul R. Krugman, 1980. "Oil and the Dollar," NBER Working Papers 0554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Colin Lawrence, 1983. "The impact of supply side policy rules on exchange rates, interest rates and the terms of trade: an exploration under alternative price rules," International Finance Discussion Papers 225, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. repec:eee:reveco:v:50:y:2017:i:c:p:245-260 is not listed on IDEAS

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