IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eme/jadeep/jadee-02-2022-0027.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The linkage between international dairy commodity prices and volatility: a panel-GARCH analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Anthony N. Rezitis
  • Ourania A. Tremma

Abstract

Purpose - The study's purpose is to investigate the price volatility of four dairy commodities (skim milk powder [SMP], whole milk powder [WMP], butter and cheddar cheese) in the three most significant regional markets (EU, Oceania and US) in the international dairy market. Design/methodology/approach - The study uses a panel-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (panel-GARCH) modeling technique and data from January 12, 2001, to April 28, 2017. Findings - Conditional volatility was higher during subperiods 2007–2010 and 2014–2016 when conditional cross-correlations between prices had the lowest values. In some cases, they were negative (i.e. between the EU and the USA and between Oceania and the USA for both butter and cheese). Interdependence across the three dairy markets, especially for SMP and WMP markets and for the butter market between EU and Oceania is also strongly evidenced. Interdependence is responsible for the spillover of price shocks across the three regions. Research limitations/implications - The data set used should be extended to cover the COVID-19 pandemic period. Originality/value - This is the first study to use panel-GARCH to examine international dairy prices and volatility linkages, where previous studies mainly used multivariate GARCH models. Panel-GARCH allows a high-dimensional data series (i.e. 12 dairy prices) and generates potential efficiency gains in estimating conditional variances and covariances by incorporating information about heterogeneity across markets and considering their interdependence.

Suggested Citation

  • Anthony N. Rezitis & Ourania A. Tremma, 2022. "The linkage between international dairy commodity prices and volatility: a panel-GARCH analysis," Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 13(5), pages 685-705, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:jadeep:jadee-02-2022-0027
    DOI: 10.1108/JADEE-02-2022-0027
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JADEE-02-2022-0027/full/html?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JADEE-02-2022-0027/full/pdf?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1108/JADEE-02-2022-0027?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rezitis, Anthony N. & Rokopanos, Andreas, 2019. "Impact of trade liberalisation on dairy market price co-movements between the EU, Oceania, and the United States," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 63(3), July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rezitis, Anthony N. & Kastner, Gregor, 2021. "On the joint volatility dynamics in international dairy commodity markets," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 60(2), January.
    2. Rezitis, Anthony N. & Rokopanos, Andreas & Tsionas, Mike G., 2021. "Investigating dynamic price co-movements in the international milk market using copulas: The role of trade agreements," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 215-227.
    3. Anthony N. Rezitis & Gregor Kastner, 2021. "On the joint volatility dynamics in dairy markets," Papers 2104.12707, arXiv.org.
    4. Scott, Ayesha & Schoen, Tilman & Fernandez-Perez, Adrian, 2020. "The Predictive Power of NZX Dairy Futures," 2020 Conference (64th), February 12-14, 2020, Perth, Western Australia 305230, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    5. Jongeneel, Roel & Gonzalez-Martinez, Ana Rosa, 2022. "The role of market drivers in explaining the EU milk supply after the milk quota abolition," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 194-209.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conditional volatility; Implied conditional cross-correlation; Panel-GARCH; Global food crisis; C33; C51; F14; L11;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:jadeep:jadee-02-2022-0027. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Emerald Support (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.