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Unit Roots and Infrequent Large Shocks: New International Evidence on Output Growth


  • Bradley, Michael D
  • Jansen, Dennis W


The authors examine output growth for the G-7 countries. They use Nathan S. Balke and Thomas Fomby's procedure to identify the date and type of trend breaks, and note that these occur in clusters. The authors estimate country-specific intervention models and test the unit root hypothesis. Their critical values explicitly take account of the prior outliner search procedure. For Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom, the unit root null hypothesis can be rejected. This suggests that the variance of output growth in these countries is generated by low-frequency, high-magnitude shocks rather than high-frequency, low-magnitude shocks. Copyright 1995 by Ohio State University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Bradley, Michael D & Jansen, Dennis W, 1995. "Unit Roots and Infrequent Large Shocks: New International Evidence on Output Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 867-893, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:27:y:1995:i:3:p:867-93

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Stewart C. Myers & Nicholas S. Majluf, 1984. "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have InformationThat Investors Do Not Have," NBER Working Papers 1396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicholas S., 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-221, June.
    3. Gregory E. Elliehausen & John D. Wolken, 1990. "Banking markets and the use of financial services by small and medium- sized businesses," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Oct, pages 801-817.
    4. Kashyap, Anil K & Stein, Jeremy C & Wilcox, David W, 1993. "Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from the Composition of External Finance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 78-98, March.
    5. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicolás S., 1945-, 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Working papers 1523-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    6. John R. Walter, 1991. "Loan loss reserves," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Jul, pages 20-30.
    7. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    8. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1972. "Credit rationing: a review," Staff Studies 72, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. King, Stephen R, 1986. "Monetary Transmission: Through Bank Loans or Bank Liabilities?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(3), pages 290-303, August.
    10. William P. Osterberg, 1990. "Bank capital requirements and leverage: a review of the literature," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q IV, pages 2-12.
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    Cited by:

    1. Olivier Darne & Laetitia Ripoll-Bresson, 2004. "Exchange rate regime classification and real performances: new empirical evidence," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 21, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    2. Diego Romero-Ávila, 2012. "Multiple trend shifts and unit roots in US state income levels: implications for long-run growth," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 48(3), pages 641-661, June.
    3. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Claude Lopez, 2013. "Unit Roots, Level Shifts, and Trend Breaks in Per Capita Output: A Robust Evaluation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 892-927, November.
    4. Pedersen, Torben Mark & Elmer, Anne Marie, 2003. "International evidence on the connection between business cycles and economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 255-275, June.
    5. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2012. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: A reappraisal," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 167-180.
    6. Keating, John W. & Nye, John V., 1999. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances in the G7 Countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 263-278, April.
    7. repec:eee:ecanpo:v:54:y:2017:i:c:p:57-73 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Olivier Darné & Amélie Charles, 2011. "Large shocks in U.S. macroeconomic time series: 1860-1988," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 5(1), pages 79-100, January.
    9. Charles, Amelie & Darne, Olivier, 2006. "Large shocks and the September 11th terrorist attacks on international stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 683-698, July.
    10. Olivier Darné & Claude Diebolt, 2006. "Chocs temporaires et permanents dans le PIB de la France, du Royaume-Uni et des États-Unis," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 116(1), pages 65-78.
    11. Halkos, George & Zisiadou, Argyro, 2016. "Exploring the effect of terrorist attacks on markets," MPRA Paper 71877, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Franco Bevilacqua & Adriaan van Zon, 2004. "Random walks and non-linear paths in macroeconomic time series: some evidence and implications," Chapters,in: Applied Evolutionary Economics and Complex Systems, chapter 3 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Mehl, Arnaud, 2000. "Unit root tests with double trend breaks and the 1990s recession in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 363-379, December.
    14. Darné, Olivier, 2009. "The uncertain unit root in real GNP: A re-examination," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 153-166, March.

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