IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/joecas/v30y2024ics1703494924000173.html

Asymmetric effects between economic development and fertility: What do 140 years of data tell us?

Author

Listed:
  • Bampinas, Georgios
  • Mavropoulos, Georgios

Abstract

This study investigates the historical nexus between economic development and fertility in eight highly advanced European economies between 1870 and 2014. We employ the method of moments quantile regression (MMQR), which enables us to examine the impact of the different levels of economic development on fertility. We also consider the role of mortality and marriage to gain a more comprehensive view of the relationship. Our results from the linear and panel quantile models suggest an inverse J-shaped pattern between economic development and fertility. However, the inverse J-shape vanishes when time effects are considered in the quantile regression model, while the impact of mortality and marriage on fertility is reinforced. To further elaborate our findings, we also employ a nonparametric panel estimation method with time-varying coefficients. Our results also suggest that periods characterized by a positive economic development effect on fertility rarely coincide with an upward movement in the observed fertility trajectory. We infer that economic development per se did not drive either the historical baby-boom period or the recent fertility rebound.

Suggested Citation

  • Bampinas, Georgios & Mavropoulos, Georgios, 2024. "Asymmetric effects between economic development and fertility: What do 140 years of data tell us?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joecas:v:30:y:2024:i:c:s1703494924000173
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2024.e00368
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1703494924000173
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jeca.2024.e00368?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter McDonald, 2000. "Gender Equity in Theories of Fertility Transition," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 26(3), pages 427-439, September.
    2. Matthias Doepke, 2004. "Accounting for Fertility Decline During the Transition to Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 347-383, September.
    3. Avner Ahituv, 2001. "Be fruitful or multiply: On the interplay between fertility and economic development," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 14(1), pages 51-71.
    4. Angela Luci-Greulich & Olivier Thévenon, 2014. "Does Economic Advancement ‘Cause’ a Re-increase in Fertility? An Empirical Analysis for OECD Countries (1960–2007)," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 30(2), pages 187-221, May.
    5. Machado, José A.F. & Santos Silva, J.M.C., 2019. "Quantiles via moments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 145-173.
    6. Macunovich, D.J., 1996. "Relative Income and Price of Time: Exploring their effcts on U.S. Fertility and Female Labor Force Participation, 1963-1993," Department of Economics Working Papers 174, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    7. Ivan A. Canay, 2011. "A simple approach to quantile regression for panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14(3), pages 368-386, October.
    8. Koenker, Roger, 2004. "Quantile regression for longitudinal data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 74-89, October.
    9. Joshua R. Goldstein & Tomáš Sobotka & Aiva Jasilioniene, 2009. "The End of “Lowest‐Low” Fertility?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 35(4), pages 663-699, December.
    10. Henriette Engelhardt & Alexia Prskawetz, 2004. "On the Changing Correlation Between Fertility and Female Employment over Space and Time," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 20(1), pages 35-62, March.
    11. Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert Tamura, 1994. "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education, Third Edition, pages 323-350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Schultz, T. Paul, 1997. "Demand for children in low income countries," Handbook of Population and Family Economics, in: M. R. Rosenzweig & Stark, O. (ed.), Handbook of Population and Family Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 349-430, Elsevier.
    13. Creina Day, 2018. "Inverse J Effect of Economic Growth on Fertility: A Model of Gender Wages and Maternal Time Substitution," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 577-587, December.
    14. Peter Lorentzen & John McMillan & Romain Wacziarg, 2008. "Death and development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 81-124, June.
    15. Kenneth Harttgen & Sebastian Vollmer, 2014. "A Reversal in the Relationship of Human Development With Fertility?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(1), pages 173-184, February.
    16. Joseph Hotz, V. & Klerman, Jacob Alex & Willis, Robert J., 1997. "The economics of fertility in developed countries," Handbook of Population and Family Economics, in: M. R. Rosenzweig & Stark, O. (ed.), Handbook of Population and Family Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 275-347, Elsevier.
    17. John Caldwell, 2008. "Three Fertility Compromises and Two Transitions," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 27(4), pages 427-446, August.
    18. Gary S. Becker, 1960. "An Economic Analysis of Fertility," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 209-240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Lamarche, Carlos, 2010. "Robust penalized quantile regression estimation for panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 396-408, August.
    20. Timothy W. Guinnane, 2011. "The Historical Fertility Transition: A Guide for Economists," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 589-614, September.
    21. Gary S. Becker, 1981. "A Treatise on the Family," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number beck81-1, January.
    22. Olivier Thévenon, 2011. "Family Policies in OECD Countries: A Comparative Analysis," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 37(1), pages 57-87, March.
    23. Dierk Herzer & Holger Strulik & Sebastian Vollmer, 2012. "The long-run determinants of fertility: one century of demographic change 1900–1999," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 357-385, December.
    24. Butz, William P & Ward, Michael P, 1979. "The Emergence of Countercyclical U.S. Fertility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 318-328, June.
    25. Silvapulle, Param & Smyth, Russell & Zhang, Xibin & Fenech, Jean-Pierre, 2017. "Nonparametric panel data model for crude oil and stock market prices in net oil importing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 255-267.
    26. Degui Li & Jia Chen & Jiti Gao, 2011. "Non‐parametric time‐varying coefficient panel data models with fixed effects," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14(3), pages 387-408, October.
    27. Gøsta Esping-Andersen & Francesco C. Billari, 2015. "Re-theorizing Family Demographics," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 41(1), pages 1-31, March.
    28. Tzannatos, Zafiris & Symons, James, 1989. "An Economic Approach to Fertility in Britain since 1860," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 2(2), pages 121-138.
    29. Galor, Oded, 2005. "From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 171-293, Elsevier.
    30. Thomas Anderson & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2015. "Low Fertility, Socioeconomic Development, and Gender Equity," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 41(3), pages 381-407, September.
    31. Galor, Oded & Weil, David N, 1996. "The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 374-387, June.
    32. Hampton Gaddy, 2021. "A decade of TFR declines suggests no relationship between development and sub-replacement fertility rebounds," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(5), pages 125-142.
    33. Tommy Bengtsson & Cameron Campbell & James Z. Lee, 2004. "Life Under Pressure: Mortality and Living Standards in Europe and Asia, 1700-1900," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262025515, December.
    34. Yiguo Sun & Raymond J. Carroll & Dingding Li, 2009. "Semiparametric estimation of fixed-effects panel data varying coefficient models," Advances in Econometrics, in: Nonparametric Econometric Methods, pages 101-129, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    35. Maricruz Lacalle-Calderon & Manuel Perez-Trujillo & Isabel Neira, 2017. "Fertility and Economic Development: Quantile Regression Evidence on the Inverse J-shaped Pattern," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(1), pages 1-31, February.
    36. Tomáš Sobotka & Vegard Skirbekk & Dimiter Philipov, 2011. "Economic Recession and Fertility in the Developed World," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 37(2), pages 267-306, June.
    37. Fabrice Murtin, 2013. "Long-Term Determinants of the Demographic Transition, 1870–2000," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 617-631, May.
    38. Mikko Myrskyla & Hans-Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari, 2011. "High development and fertility: fertility at older reproductive ages and gender equality explain the positive link," Working Papers 049, "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi.
    39. Jan Van Bavel & David S. Reher, 2013. "The Baby Boom and Its Causes: What We Know and What We Need to Know," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 39(2), pages 257-288, June.
    40. Mikko Myrskylä & Hans-Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari, 2009. "Advances in development reverse fertility declines," Nature, Nature, vol. 460(7256), pages 741-743, August.
    41. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
    42. Joshua R. Goldstein & Tomáš Sobotka & Aiva Jasilioniene, 2009. "The end of 'lowest-low' fertility? (with supplementary materials)," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2009-029, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    43. Enrico Spolaore & Romain Wacziarg, 2022. "Fertility and Modernity," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(642), pages 796-833.
    44. Asako Ohinata & Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2020. "Demographic Transition and Fertility Rebound in Economic Development," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(4), pages 1640-1670, October.
    45. Holger Strulik, 2004. "Child mortality, child labour and economic development," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 547-568, July.
    46. Pedro Mira & Namkee Ahn, 2001. "Job bust, baby bust?: Evidence from Spain," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 14(3), pages 505-521.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maricruz Lacalle-Calderon & Manuel Perez-Trujillo & Isabel Neira, 2017. "Fertility and Economic Development: Quantile Regression Evidence on the Inverse J-shaped Pattern," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(1), pages 1-31, February.
    2. Dong-Hyeon Kim & Shu-Chin Lin, 2024. "Fertility and the oil curse," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(2), pages 381-416, August.
    3. Angela Luci-Greulich & Olivier Thévenon, 2014. "Does Economic Advancement ‘Cause’ a Re-increase in Fertility? An Empirical Analysis for OECD Countries (1960–2007)," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 30(2), pages 187-221, May.
    4. Henrik-Alexander Schubert & Christian Dudel & Marina Kolobova & Mikko Myrskylä, 2023. "Revisiting the J-shape: human development and fertility in the United States," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2023-022, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    5. Jakob Madsen & Holger Strulik, 2023. "Testing unified growth theory: Technological progress and the child quantity‐quality tradeoff," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(1), pages 235-275, January.
    6. Abebe HAILEMARIAM, 2024. "Income and differential fertility: evidence from oil price shocks," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 90(1), pages 31-54, March.
    7. Georgios Mavropoulos & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2021. "On the drivers of the fertility rebound," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 821-845, August.
    8. Piotr Dominiak & Ewa Lechman & Anna Okonowicz, 2015. "Fertility Rebound And Economic Growth. New Evidence For 18 Countries Over The Period 1970–2011," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 10(1), pages 91-112, March.
    9. Jonathan Fox & Sebastian Klüsener & Mikko Myrskylä, 2019. "Is a Positive Relationship Between Fertility and Economic Development Emerging at the Sub-National Regional Level? Theoretical Considerations and Evidence from Europe," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 35(3), pages 487-518, July.
    10. Casper Worm Hansen & Peter Sandholt Jensen & Lars Lønstrup, 2014. "The Fertility Transition in the US: Schooling or Income?," Economics Working Papers 2014-02, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    11. Dierk Herzer & Holger Strulik & Sebastian Vollmer, 2012. "The long-run determinants of fertility: one century of demographic change 1900–1999," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 357-385, December.
    12. Oded Galor, 2012. "The demographic transition: causes and consequences," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 6(1), pages 1-28, January.
    13. Papagni, Erasmo, "undated". "Fertility Transitions in Developing Countries: Convergence, Timing, and Causes," ETA: Economic Theory and Applications 301036, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    14. Bloom, D.E. & Luca, D.L., 2016. "The Global Demography of Aging," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 3-56, Elsevier.
    15. Angela Luci-Greulich & Olivier Thévenon, 2013. "The Impact of Family Policies on Fertility Trends in Developed Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(4), pages 387-416, November.
    16. Galindev, Ragchaasuren, 2008. "The Evolution of Population, Technology and Output," MPRA Paper 17116, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Aug 2009.
    17. Nicoletta Balbo & Francesco C. Billari & Melinda Mills, 2013. "Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 1-38, February.
    18. Marla Ripoll & Juan Carlos Cordoba, 2011. "A Contribution to the Economic Theory of Fertility," 2011 Meeting Papers 1207, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Angela Luci & Olivier Thevenon, 2010. "Does economic development drive the fertility rebound in OECD countries?," Working Papers hal-00520948, HAL.
    20. Sunha Myong & JungJae Park & Junjian Yi, 2021. "Social Norms and Fertility," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(5), pages 2429-2466.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:joecas:v:30:y:2024:i:c:s1703494924000173. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/the-journal-of-economic-asymmetries/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.