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A Reversal in the Relationship of Human Development With Fertility?

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  • Kenneth Harttgen

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  • Sebastian Vollmer

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Abstract

Myrskylä et al. (2009) found that the relationship between the human development index (HDI) and the total fertility rate (TFR) reverses from negative (i.e., increases in HDI are associated with decreases in TFR) to positive (i.e., increases in HDI are associated with increases in TFR) at an HDI level of 0.86. In this article, we show that the reversal in the HDI-TFR relationship is robust to neither the UNDP’s recent revision in the HDI calculation method nor thedecomposition of the HDI into its education, standard-of-living, and health subindices. Copyright Population Association of America 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth Harttgen & Sebastian Vollmer, 2014. "A Reversal in the Relationship of Human Development With Fertility?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(1), pages 173-184, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:51:y:2014:i:1:p:173-184
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-013-0252-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tomáš Sobotka, 2004. "Is Lowest‐Low Fertility in Europe Explained by the Postponement of Childbearing?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 30(2), pages 195-220, June.
    2. Alkire, Sabina & Foster, James, 2011. "Counting and multidimensional poverty measurement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7), pages 476-487.
    3. Hans‐Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "The Emergence of Lowest‐Low Fertility in Europe During the 1990s," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(4), pages 641-680, December.
    4. Hans-Peter Kohler & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures, Fertility Postponement and Completed Cohort Fertility," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(6), pages 91-144, March.
    5. Alícia Adserà, 2004. "Changing fertility rates in developed countries. The impact of labor market institutions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 17(1), pages 17-43, February.
    6. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
    7. Angela Luci & Olivier Thevenon, 2010. "Does economic development drive the fertility rebound in OECD countries?," Working Papers hal-00520948, HAL.
    8. Angela Luci & Olivier Thevenon, 2010. "Does economic development drive the fertility rebound in OECD countries?," Working Papers hal-00520948, HAL.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Angela Luci-Greulich & Olivier Thévenon, 2014. "Does Economic Advancement ‘Cause’ a Re-increase in Fertility? An Empirical Analysis for OECD Countries (1960–2007)," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 30(2), pages 187-221, May.
    2. Yoko Nakagaki, 2018. "Inverse J-Shaped Relationship between Fertility and Gender Equality: Different Relationships of the Two Variables According to Income Levels," Working Papers 165, JICA Research Institute.
    3. repec:spr:eurpop:v:34:y:2018:i:5:d:10.1007_s10680-017-9459-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Sanjay K. Mohanty & Gunther Fink & Rajesh Chauhan & David Canning, 2016. "Distal determinants of fertility decline: Evidence from 640 Indian districts," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 34(13), pages 373-406, March.
    5. repec:ebl:ecbull:eb-19-00764 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Thomas Anderson & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2015. "Low Fertility, Socioeconomic Development, and Gender Equity," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 41(3), pages 381-407, September.
    7. Fox, Jonathan & Klüsener, Sebastian & Myrskylä, Mikko, 2018. "Is a positive relationship between fertility and economic development emerging at the sub-national regional level? Theoretical considerations and evidence from Europe," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 88295, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Maricruz Lacalle-Calderon & Manuel Perez-Trujillo & Isabel Neira, 2017. "Fertility and Economic Development: Quantile Regression Evidence on the Inverse J-shaped Pattern," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(1), pages 1-31, February.
    9. Hudde, Ansgar, 2016. "Fertility Is Low When There Is No Societal Agreement on a Specific Gender Role Model," EconStor Preprints 142175, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    10. Creina Day, 2016. "Can Theory Explain the Evidence on Fertility Decline Reversal?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 49(2), pages 136-145, February.
    11. Martin Dribe & Michel Oris & Lucia Pozzi, 2014. "Socioeconomic status and fertility before, during, and after the demographic transition: An introduction," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(7), pages 161-182, July.
    12. Jonathan F. Fox & Sebastian Klüsener & Mikko Myrskylä, 2015. "Is a positive relationship between fertility and economic development emerging at the sub-national regional level? Theoretical considerations and evidence from Europe," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2015-006, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    13. Ganlin Huang & Yaqiong Jiang, 2017. "Urbanization and Socioeconomic Development in Inner Mongolia in 2000 and 2010: A GIS Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(2), pages 1-11, February.

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