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Fertility rebound and economic growth. New evidence for 18 countries over the period 1970-2011

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  • Lechman, Ewa
  • Dominiak, Piotr
  • Okonowicz, Anna

Abstract

Long-run impact of economic growth on fertility trends is ambiguous and sensitive for in-time variations. Over last decades, economic growth has led in many countries to significant falls in total fertility rates. However, recently, in high-income economies a kind of “fertility rebound” is revealed [Goldstein 2009; Luci and Thevenon, 2011; Day 2012]. The concept of fertility rebound supports the hypothesis that reversal trends in total fertility rates are mainly attributed to economic growth. Our paper unveils the relationship between total fertility rate changes and economic growth in 18 selected countries with fertility rebound observed, over the period 1970-2011. We anticipate uncovering U-shaped impact of economic growth on total fertility rate. To report on the relationship we deploy longitudinal data analysis assuming non-linearity between examined variables. Data applied are exclusive derived from World Development Indicators 2013. Our main findings support the hypothesis on U-shaped relationship between total fertility rate and economic growth in analyzed countries in 1970-2011. Along with the previous we project the minimum level of GDP per capita when the fertility rebound takes place.

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  • Lechman, Ewa & Dominiak, Piotr & Okonowicz, Anna, 2014. "Fertility rebound and economic growth. New evidence for 18 countries over the period 1970-2011," MPRA Paper 55104, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:55104
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    3. Creina Day, 2018. "Inverse J Effect of Economic Growth on Fertility: A Model of Gender Wages and Maternal Time Substitution," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 577-587, December.
    4. Ratbek Dzhumashev & Ainura Tursunalieva, 2023. "Social externalities, endogenous childcare costs, and fertility choice," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 397-429, January.
    5. Piotr Dominiak & Ewa Lechman & Anna Okonowicz, 2015. "Fertility Rebound And Economic Growth. New Evidence For 18 Countries Over The Period 1970–2011," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 10(1), pages 91-112, March.
    6. Tausch, Arno, 2016. "Occidentalism, terrorism, and the Shari’a state: new multivariate perspectives on Islamism based on international survey data," MPRA Paper 69498, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Creina Day, 2016. "Can Theory Explain the Evidence on Fertility Decline Reversal?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 49(2), pages 136-145, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility rate; fertility rebound; economic growth; panel data analysis.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • J0 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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