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Skill Composition, Fertility and Economic Growth

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  • Creina Day

Abstract

While high fertility persists in the poorest countries and fertility declines with per capita income in developing countries, fertility and per capita income are now positively associated across most developed countries. This paper presents a model where a Ushaped relationship between overall fertility and per capita income reflects within country differences in workforce skill composition and household choice of occupation, fertility and childrearing. The fraction of skilled workers rises with economic growth. By allowing for both differences in the fertility of skilled and unskilled workers and purchased childrearing inputs, we explain a poverty trap with high fertility, fertility decline with economic development and the possible reversal of fertility decline in a developed economy where most workers are skilled.

Suggested Citation

  • Creina Day, 2013. "Skill Composition, Fertility and Economic Growth," CAMA Working Papers 2013-47, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2013-47
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    Cited by:

    1. Lucia Tamburino & Philip Cafaro & Giangiacomo Bravo, 2023. "An Analysis of Three Decades of Increasing Carbon Emissions: The Weight of the P Factor," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-11, February.
    2. Creina Day, 2016. "Can Theory Explain the Evidence on Fertility Decline Reversal?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 49(2), pages 136-145, February.
    3. Panayotis Kapopoulos & Anastasios Rizos, 2024. "Judicial efficiency and economic growth: Evidence based on European Union data," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 71(1), pages 101-131, February.
    4. Chen Luo & Ewa Jarosz, 2025. "Job creation, job destruction, and fertility in Germany," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 52(13), pages 383-414.
    5. Piotr Dominiak & Ewa Lechman & Anna Okonowicz, 2015. "Fertility Rebound And Economic Growth. New Evidence For 18 Countries Over The Period 1970–2011," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 10(1), pages 91-112, March.
    6. Sayaka Yakita, 2019. "Fertility, child care policy, urbanization, and economic growth," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 51-62, April.
    7. Takakura, Kei, 2023. "Child mortality, child labor, fertility, and demographics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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