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Fertility rebound and economic growth. New evidence for 18 countries over the period 1970-2011

Author

Listed:
  • Piotr Dominiak,

    (Gdansk University of Technology, Poland)

  • Ewa Lechman

    (Gdansk University of Technology, Poland)

  • Piotr Anna Okonowicz

    (Gdansk University of Technology, Poland)

Abstract

Long-run impact of economic growth on fertility trends is ambiguous and sensitive for in-time variations. Noticeably, over last decades, economic growth has led in many countries to significant falls in total fertility rates. However, recently, in high-income economies a kind of ‘fertility rebound’ emerged (Goldstein, 2009; Luci and Thevenon, 2011; Day, 2012), which supports the hypothesis that reversal trends in total fertility rates are mainly attributed to economic growth. The paper unveils the relationship between total fertility rate changes and economic growth in 18 selected countries with fertility rebound observed, over the period 1970-2011, and detects the GDP-threshold at which the fertility rebound emerged. To report on the relationship we deploy longitudinal data analysis assuming non-linearity between examined variables. Data applied are exclusive derived from World Development Indicators 2013. Our main findings support the hypothesis on U-shaped relationship between total fertility rate and economic growth in analyzed countries in 1970-2011. Along with the previous we project the minimum level of GDP per capita (GDP-threshold) when the fertility rebound takes place.

Suggested Citation

  • Piotr Dominiak, & Ewa Lechman & Piotr Anna Okonowicz, 2014. "Fertility rebound and economic growth. New evidence for 18 countries over the period 1970-2011," Working Papers 28/2014, Institute of Economic Research, revised Dec 2014.
    • Handle: RePEc:pes:wpaper:2014:no28
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    Cited by:

    1. Asako Ohinata & Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2020. "Demographic Transition and Fertility Rebound in Economic Development," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(4), pages 1640-1670, October.
    2. Tausch, Arno & Heshmati, Almas, 2016. "Islamism and Gender Relations in the Muslim World as Reflected in Recent World Values Survey Data," IZA Discussion Papers 9672, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Creina Day, 2018. "Inverse J Effect of Economic Growth on Fertility: A Model of Gender Wages and Maternal Time Substitution," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 577-587, December.
    4. Ratbek Dzhumashev & Ainura Tursunalieva, 2023. "Social externalities, endogenous childcare costs, and fertility choice," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 397-429, January.
    5. Tausch, Arno, 2016. "Occidentalism, terrorism, and the Shari’a state: new multivariate perspectives on Islamism based on international survey data," MPRA Paper 69498, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Creina Day, 2016. "Can Theory Explain the Evidence on Fertility Decline Reversal?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 49(2), pages 136-145, February.
    7. Piotr Dominiak & Ewa Lechman & Anna Okonowicz, 2015. "Fertility Rebound And Economic Growth. New Evidence For 18 Countries Over The Period 1970–2011," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 10(1), pages 91-112, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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