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Cohort overlays of evolving childbearing patterns: how postponement and recuperation are refl ected in period fertility trends


  • Tomas Frejka

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)


Combining cohort and period perspectives a method is developed that follows the process of childbearing postponement and recuperation and its reflection in total period fertility levels and trends in low fertility populations. It is complementary to methods pioneered by Bongaarts and Feeney (1998) estimating tempo-adjusted period total fertility rates. The method can be characterized as revealing the internal structural mechanism of the postponement and recuperation process. It is applied to analyzing the fertility history of Western countries, Southern Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, and East Asia during the past half century. Our research concludes that period fertility descents and troughs, for instance, “lowest-low” fertility, as well as increases and peaks are a reflection of changing cohort childbearing patterns due to fertility postponement and recuperation combined with overlays of successive birth cohorts. Period fertility troughs occurred in Western countries during the 1980s, in Central and Eastern Europe around 2000.

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  • Tomas Frejka, 2010. "Cohort overlays of evolving childbearing patterns: how postponement and recuperation are refl ected in period fertility trends," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2010-026, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-026

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Angus Deaton, 2008. "Income, Health, and Well-Being around the World: Evidence from the Gallup World Poll," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(2), pages 53-72, Spring.
    2. Hans-Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "The Emergence of Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe During the 1990s," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(4), pages 641-680.
    3. Vani Borooah, 2006. "How much happiness is there in the world? A cross-country study," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 483-488.
    4. Easterlin, Richard A., 1995. "Will raising the incomes of all increase the happiness of all?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 35-47, June.
    5. Thomas Hansen & Britt Slagsvold & Torbjørn Moum, 2009. "Childlessness and Psychological Well-Being in Midlife and Old Age: An Examination of Parental Status Effects Across a Range of Outcomes," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 94(2), pages 343-362, November.
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    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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