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Unrealized fertility: Fertility desires at the end of the reproductive career

Author

Listed:
  • John Casterline

    (Ohio State University)

  • Siqi Han

    (Columbia University)

Abstract

Background: ‘Unrealized fertility’ is a failure to achieve desired fertility. Unrealized fertility has been examined in low-fertility societies but, with the exception of research on infertility, has been neglected in research on non-Western societies. Objective: We conduct a multicountry investigation of one form of unrealized fertility, namely a reproductive career which ends with the woman desiring further children. Methods: We analyze 295,854 women aged 44‒48 in 252 surveys (DHS, RHS, PAP) conducted in the period 1986–2015 in 78 countries. Two indicators of unrealized fertility are constructed: (i) a comparison of ideal versus actual number of children; (ii) the desire for another child. We estimate multilevel regressions with covariates at individual and aggregate levels. Results: Unrealized fertility is far more prevalent according to the first indicator than the second. It is more common among women with fewer living children and women whose first birth occurs after age 20, and it is distinctly higher in sub-Saharan Africa and lower in South Asia. The evidence on trend over the course of fertility transition is mixed: for the second indicator but not the first, the net effect is a reduction in the prevalence of unrealized fertility as fertility declines. Conclusions: Unrealized fertility occurs frequently in most societies and therefore deserves more rigorous research, especially on its consequences for emotional, social, economic, and demographic outcomes. Contribution: We provide the first comprehensive documentation of the prevalence of unrealized fertility across a broad set of contemporary non-Western societies.

Suggested Citation

  • John Casterline & Siqi Han, 2017. "Unrealized fertility: Fertility desires at the end of the reproductive career," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(14), pages 427-454.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:36:y:2017:i:14
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2017.36.14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Melanie Dawn Channon & Sarah Harper, 2019. "Educational differentials in the realisation of fertility intentions: Is sub-Saharan Africa different?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(7), pages 1-14, July.
    2. Karen Benjamin Guzzo & Sarah R. Hayford, 2023. "Evolving Fertility Goals and Behaviors in Current U.S. Childbearing Cohorts," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 49(1), pages 7-42, March.
    3. Jac Thomas & Francisco Rowe & Paul Williamson & Eric S. Lin, 2022. "The effect of leave policies on increasing fertility: a systematic review," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-16, December.
    4. AKEJU, Kemi Funlayo, 2021. "Fertility Preference in Older Women: Effect of Place of Residence and Use of Contraceptives in Nigeria," International Journal of Social Sciences Perspectives, Online Academic Press, vol. 8(1), pages 25-30.
    5. Natalie Nitsche & Sarah R. Hayford, 2020. "Preferences, Partners, and Parenthood: Linking Early Fertility Desires, Marriage Timing, and Achieved Fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(6), pages 1975-2001, December.
    6. Adam Ka-Lok Cheung & Lake Lui, 2024. "The Personal is Political: Political Attitudes, Affective Polarization and Fertility Preferences in Hong Kong," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(2), pages 1-23, April.
    7. Krzysztof Makarski & Joanna Tyrowicz & Magda Malec, 2019. "Fiscal and Welfare Effects of Raised Fertility in Poland: Overlapping Generations Model Estimates," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 45(4), pages 795-818, December.
    8. Sara Yeatman & Jenny Trinitapoli & Sarah Garver, 2020. "The Enduring Case for Fertility Desires," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(6), pages 2047-2056, December.
    9. Florianne C. J. Verkroost & Christiaan W. S. Monden, 2022. "Childlessness and Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: Is There Evidence for a U-shaped Pattern?," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(3), pages 319-352, August.
    10. Eva Beaujouan, 2018. "Late Fertility Intentions and Fertility in Austria," VID Working Papers 1806, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    11. Magdalena Smyk & Joanna Tyrowicz & Lucas van der Velde, 2021. "A Cautionary Note on the Reliability of the Online Survey Data: The Case of Wage Indicator," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 50(1), pages 429-464, February.
    12. Natalie Nitsche & Sarah Hayford, 2018. "Preferences, Partners, and Parenthood: Linking Early Fertility Desires, Union Formation Timing, and Achieved Fertility," VID Working Papers 1810, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    13. Krzysztof Makarski & Joanna Tyrowicz & Magda Malec, 2018. "Evaluating welfare and economic effects of raised fertility," GRAPE Working Papers 25, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
    14. Natalie Nitsche & Hannah Brueckner, 2018. "High and Higher: Fertility of Black and White Women with College and Postgraduate Education in the United States," VID Working Papers 1807, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    15. Babayemi O Olakunde & Jennifer R Pharr & Lung-Chang Chien & Rebecca D Benfield & Francisco S Sy, 2020. "Individual- and country-level correlates of female permanent contraception use in sub-Saharan Africa," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(12), pages 1-15, December.
    16. Vincenzo Galasso, 2024. "The Role of Salience and Memory in Fertility Decisions: Experimental Evidence," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(4), pages 1-18, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility desires; unrealized fertility; non-Western societies; cross-national study;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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