IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/annopr/v311y2022i2d10.1007_s10479-020-03669-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Ranking fertility predictors in Spain: a multicriteria decision approach

Author

Listed:
  • Mar Llorente-Marrón

    (University of Oviedo)

  • Montserrat Díaz-Fernández

    (University of Oviedo)

  • Paz Méndez-Rodríguez

    (University of Oviedo)

Abstract

Fertility is highly determined by previous fertility intentions. Spain has one of the lowest levels of fertility in Europe. This work presents an analysis of fertility intentions in Spain based on data from the 2018 Fertility Survey conducted by the Spanish National Institute of Statistics. This survey identifies the key factors influencing recent and current fertility levels as well as the fertility intentions of its participants. Using the theoretical framework of the theory of planned behaviour and via multinomial logistic regression, the main social, economic and demographic factors that drive or inhibit desired fertility are determined and analysed. Traditional approaches rank the contribution of these factors or predictors to the dependent variable using a single criterion. In this work, several decision criteria will be simultaneously considered in the ranking of fertility intention’s predictors. The obtained results show how the costs of progression to paternity and the perceived benefits of having a child significantly impact decisions regarding first maternity. The demographic background factors that are related to age and the number of children are the determinants that most influence the second and subsequent maternities. The factors that are related to the labour market, gender roles and the negative effect of the current Spanish real estate market are also identified as determinants of desired fertility.

Suggested Citation

  • Mar Llorente-Marrón & Montserrat Díaz-Fernández & Paz Méndez-Rodríguez, 2022. "Ranking fertility predictors in Spain: a multicriteria decision approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 311(2), pages 771-798, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:311:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s10479-020-03669-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-020-03669-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10479-020-03669-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10479-020-03669-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nitzan Peri-Rotem, 2016. "Religion and Fertility in Western Europe: Trends Across Cohorts in Britain, France and the Netherlands," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 32(2), pages 231-265, May.
    2. Melinda Mills & Katia Begall & Letizia Mencarini & Maria Letizia Tanturri, 2008. "Gender equity and fertility intentions in Italy and the Netherlands," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 18(1), pages 1-26.
    3. Jonas Wood & Karel Neels & Tine Kil, 2014. "The educational gradient of childlessness and cohort parity progression in 14 low fertility countries," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(46), pages 1365-1416.
    4. John Bongaarts, 2010. "The causes of educational differences in fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 8(1), pages 31-50.
    5. Shareen Joshi & T. Paul Schultz, 2007. "Family Planning as an Investment in Development: Evaluation of a Program's Consequences in Matlab, Bangladesh," Working Papers 951, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
    6. Ajzen, Icek, 1991. "The theory of planned behavior," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 179-211, December.
    7. Francesco C. Billari & Dimiter Philipov & Maria Rita Testa, 2009. "Attitudes, Norms and Perceived Behavioural Control: Explaining Fertility Intentions in Bulgaria [Attitudes, normes et contrôle perçu du comportement: Une explication des intentions de fécondité en ," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 439-465, November.
    8. Gøsta Esping-Andersen, 2017. "Education, gender revolution, and fertility recovery," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 15(1), pages 055-59.
    9. Haris Symeonidou, 2000. "Expected and Actual Family Size in Greece: 1983–1997," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 16(4), pages 335-352, December.
    10. Michaela Kreyenfeld & Gunnar Andersson & Ariane Pailhé, 2012. "Economic Uncertainty and Family Dynamics in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 27(28), pages 835-852.
    11. Amparo González-Ferrer & Teresa Castro Martín & Elisabeth Kraus & Tatiana Eremenko, 2017. "Childbearing patterns among immigrant women and their daughters in Spain: Over-adaptation or structural constraints," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 37(19), pages 599-634.
    12. Almudena Sevilla-Sanz, 2010. "Household division of labor and cross-country differences in household formation rates," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(1), pages 225-249, January.
    13. C. West Churchman & Russell L. Ackoff, 1954. "An Approximate Measure of Value," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 2(2), pages 172-187, May.
    14. Anne Gauthier, 2007. "The impact of family policies on fertility in industrialized countries: a review of the literature," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 26(3), pages 323-346, June.
    15. Clara Calvo & Carlos Ivorra & Vicente Liern, 2016. "Fuzzy portfolio selection with non-financial goals: exploring the efficient frontier," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 245(1), pages 31-46, October.
    16. Aart C. Liefbroer & Dimiter Philipov & Francesco C. Billari, 2006. "The Postponement of Childbearing in Europe: Driving Forces and Implications," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 4(1), pages 1-17.
    17. Tomas Frejka & Charles F. Westoff, 2008. "Religion, Religiousness and Fertility in the US and in Europe," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 24(1), pages 5-31, March.
    18. Estrella, Arturo, 1998. "A New Measure of Fit for Equations with Dichotomous Dependent Variables," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 198-205, April.
    19. Elisabeth K. Kraus & Teresa Castro-Martín, 2018. "Does Migrant Background Matter for Adolescents’ Fertility Preferences? The Latin American 1.5 Generation in Spain," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 277-312, August.
    20. Maria Iacovou & Lara Patrício Tavares, 2011. "Yearning, Learning, and Conceding: Reasons Men and Women Change Their Childbearing Intentions," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 37(1), pages 89-123, March.
    21. Michaela Kreyenfeld & Gunnar Andersson & Ariane Pailhé, 2012. "Economic Uncertainty and Family Dynamics in Europe: Introduction," Post-Print hal-02081826, HAL.
    22. Øystein Kravdal, 2002. "Is the Previously Reported Increase in Second- and Higher-order Birth Rates in Norway and Sweden from the mid-1970s Real or a Result of Inadequate Estimation Methods?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(9), pages 241-262.
    23. Maria Teresa Lamata & Vicente Liern & Blanca Pérez-Gladish, 2018. "Doing good by doing well: a MCDM framework for evaluating corporate social responsibility attractiveness," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 267(1), pages 249-266, August.
    24. Michaela R. Kreyenfeld & Gunnar Andersson & Ariane Pailhé, 2012. "Economic uncertainty and family dynamics in Europe (Introduction to special issue of Demographic Research)," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2012-006, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    25. Aart C. Liefbroer, 2009. "Changes in Family Size Intentions Across Young Adulthood: A Life-Course Perspective [Evolution des intentions en matière de taille de famille en début d’âge adulte: une approche biographique]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 363-386, November.
    26. S. Philip Morgan & Heather Rackin, 2010. "The Correspondence Between Fertility Intentions and Behavior in the United States," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(1), pages 91-118, March.
    27. Clara H. Mulder, 2006. "Population and housing," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 15(13), pages 401-412.
    28. Hill Kulu & Fiona Steele, 2013. "Interrelationships Between Childbearing and Housing Transitions in the Family Life Course," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(5), pages 1687-1714, October.
    29. Mikko Myrskyla & Hans-Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari, 2011. "High development and fertility: fertility at older reproductive ages and gender equality explain the positive link," Working Papers 049, "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi.
    30. Amalia Miller, 2011. "The effects of motherhood timing on career path," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 24(3), pages 1071-1100, July.
    31. Bertrand Mareschal & Jean Pierre Brans & Philippe Vincke, 1986. "How to select and how to rank projects: the Prométhée method," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/9307, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    32. Brans, J. P. & Vincke, Ph. & Mareschal, B., 1986. "How to select and how to rank projects: The method," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 228-238, February.
    33. Lyn Craig & Peter Siminski, 2011. "If Men Do More Housework, Do Their Wives Have More Babies?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 101(2), pages 255-258, April.
    34. repec:cai:poeine:pope_1102_0391 is not listed on IDEAS
    35. Frank Heiland & Alexia Prskawetz & Warren C. Sanderson, 2008. "Are Individuals’ Desired Family Sizes Stable? Evidence from West German Panel Data," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 24(2), pages 129-156, June.
    36. Zanakis, Stelios H. & Solomon, Anthony & Wishart, Nicole & Dublish, Sandipa, 1998. "Multi-attribute decision making: A simulation comparison of select methods," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 507-529, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicoletta Balbo & Francesco C. Billari & Melinda Mills, 2013. "Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 1-38, February.
    2. Marco Novelli & Alberto Cazzola & Aurora Angeli & Lucia Pasquini, 2021. "Fertility Intentions in Times of Rising Economic Uncertainty: Evidence from Italy from a Gender Perspective," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 154(1), pages 257-284, February.
    3. Maria Rita Testa & Valeria Bordone & Beata Osiewalska & Vegard Skirbekk, 2016. "Are daughters’ childbearing intentions related to their mothers’ socio-economic status?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 35(21), pages 581-616.
    4. Francesca Luppi & Letizia Mencarini, 2018. "Parents’ subjective well-being after their first child and declining fertility expectations," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(9), pages 285-314.
    5. Raffaele Guetto & Giacomo Bazzani & Daniele Vignoli, 2020. "Narratives of the future shape fertility in uncertain times. Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2020_11, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    6. Natalie Nitsche & Sarah Hayford, 2018. "Preferences, Partners, and Parenthood: Linking Early Fertility Desires, Union Formation Timing, and Achieved Fertility," VID Working Papers 1810, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    7. Isabella Buber-Ennser & Ralina Panova & Jürgen Dorbritz, 2013. "Fertility Intentions Of University Graduates," Demográfia English Edition, Hungarian Demographic Research Institute, vol. 56(5), pages 5-34.
    8. Susanne Fahlén & Livia Sz. Oláh, 2018. "Economic uncertainty and first-birth intentions in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(28), pages 795-834.
    9. Youngcho Lee, 2022. "Is Leave for Fathers Pronatalist? A Mixed-Methods Study of the Impact of Fathers’ Uptake of Parental Leave on Couples’ Childbearing Intentions in South Korea," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(4), pages 1471-1500, August.
    10. Zuzanna Brzozowska & Isabella Buber-Ennser & Bernhard Riederer, 2021. "Didn’t Plan One but got One: Unintended and sooner-than-intended Parents in the East and the West of Europe," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(3), pages 727-767, July.
    11. Micaela Bassford & Hayley Fisher, 2020. "The Impact of Paid Parental Leave on Fertility Intentions," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(315), pages 402-430, December.
    12. Gerda Neyer & Trude Lappegård & Daniele Vignoli, 2013. "Gender Equality and Fertility: Which Equality Matters?," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 245-272, August.
    13. Daniele Vignoli & Alessandra Minello & Giacomo Bazzani & Camilla Matera & Chiara Rapallini, 2022. "Narratives of the Future Affect Fertility: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(1), pages 93-124, March.
    14. Thomas L. Saaty & Daji Ergu, 2015. "When is a Decision-Making Method Trustworthy? Criteria for Evaluating Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Methods," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(06), pages 1171-1187, November.
    15. Bassford, Micaela & Fisher, Hayley, 2016. "Bonus babies? The impact of paid parental leave on fertility intentions," Working Papers 2016-04, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    16. Daniele Vignoli & Raffaele Guetto & Giacomo Bazzani & Elena Pirani & Alessandra Minello, 2020. "Economic Uncertainty and Fertility in Europe: Narratives of the Future," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2020_01, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    17. Brian Buh, 2021. "Measuring the Effect of Employment uncertainty on Fertility in Europe (A literature review)," VID Working Papers 2103, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    18. Petra Buhr & Johannes Huinink, 2017. "Why Childless Men and Women Give Up on Having Children," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(4), pages 585-606, October.
    19. Mengni Chen & Paul S. F. Yip, 2017. "The Discrepancy Between Ideal and Actual Parity in Hong Kong: Fertility Desire, Intention, and Behavior," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 36(4), pages 583-605, August.
    20. Maria Rita Testa, 2017. "Will highly educated women have more children in the future? Looking at reproductive plans and outcomes," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 15(1), pages 033-40.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:311:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s10479-020-03669-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.