Looking for a J-shaped development-fertility relationship: Do advances in development really reverse fertility declines?
In their article published in the “Nature” journal, Myrskylä et al. (2009) claimed that in highly developed countries development-fertility relationship becomes J-shaped. This means that further advances in economic and social development can reverse declining fertility rates. The present paper employs threshold regression analysis (Hansen 2000) to examine the existence of the proposed J-shaped fertility-development curve. The findings indicate that the threshold value of human development index is 0.777. The threshold regression analysis reveals that in countries with a low human development index higher levels of HDI tend to be associated with lower fertility rates. Likewise, in countries with a high human development index, higher levels of HDI tend to be associated with lower fertility rates, albeit the relationship is weak. Thus, the findings of this study do not support the proposition that advances in development can reverse fertility decline, neither do they confirm the existence of the J-shaped development-fertility relationship.
Volume (Year): 29 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
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- Hansen, Bruce E, 1996.
"Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis,"
Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March.
- Hansen, B.E., 1991. "Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis," RCER Working Papers 296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Tom Doan, . "TAR: RATS procedure to estimate a threshold autoregression, tests for threshold effect," Statistical Software Components RTS00209, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Hansen's threshold estimation and testing results," Statistical Software Components RTZ00091, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Hansen Bruce E., 1997.
"Inference in TAR Models,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics,
De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, April.
- Tom Doan, . "THRESHTEST: RATS procedure to perform Hansen's Test for Threshold Break," Statistical Software Components RTS00210, Boston College Department of Economics.
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