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Looking for a J-shaped development-fertility relationship: Do advances in development really reverse fertility declines?

Author

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  • Fumitaka Furuoka

    () (Universiti Malaysia Sabah)

Abstract

In their article published in the “Nature” journal, Myrskylä et al. (2009) claimed that in highly developed countries development-fertility relationship becomes J-shaped. This means that further advances in economic and social development can reverse declining fertility rates. The present paper employs threshold regression analysis (Hansen 2000) to examine the existence of the proposed J-shaped fertility-development curve. The findings indicate that the threshold value of human development index is 0.777. The threshold regression analysis reveals that in countries with a low human development index higher levels of HDI tend to be associated with lower fertility rates. Likewise, in countries with a high human development index, higher levels of HDI tend to be associated with lower fertility rates, albeit the relationship is weak. Thus, the findings of this study do not support the proposition that advances in development can reverse fertility decline, neither do they confirm the existence of the J-shaped development-fertility relationship.

Suggested Citation

  • Fumitaka Furuoka, 2009. "Looking for a J-shaped development-fertility relationship: Do advances in development really reverse fertility declines?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 3067-3074.
  • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-09-00739
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    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2009/Volume29/EB-09-V29-I4-P295.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
    2. Hansen Bruce E., 1997. "Inference in TAR Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Angela Luci-Greulich & Olivier Thévenon, 2014. "Does Economic Advancement ‘Cause’ a Re-increase in Fertility? An Empirical Analysis for OECD Countries (1960–2007)," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 30(2), pages 187-221, May.
    2. Masahiko Aoki, 2011. "The Five-Phases of Economic Development and Institutional Evolution in China and Japan," Development Economics Working Papers 23196, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    3. Angela Luci & Olivier Thevenon, 2010. "Does economic development drive the fertility rebound in OECD countries?," Working Papers hal-00520948, HAL.
    4. Fumitaka Furuoka, 2010. "The Fertility-Development Relationship in the United States: New Evidence from Threshold Regression Analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(3), pages 1808-1822.
    5. Thomas Anderson & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2015. "Low Fertility, Socioeconomic Development, and Gender Equity," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 41(3), pages 381-407, September.
    6. Maricruz Lacalle-Calderon & Manuel Perez-Trujillo & Isabel Neira, 2017. "Fertility and Economic Development: Quantile Regression Evidence on the Inverse J-shaped Pattern," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(1), pages 1-31, February.
    7. Hudde, Ansgar, 2016. "Fertility Is Low When There Is No Societal Agreement on a Specific Gender Role Model," EconStor Preprints 142175, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    8. Zubin Shroff & Marcia C. Castro, 2011. "The potential impact of intermarriage on the population decline of the Parsis of Mumbai, India," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(17), pages 545-564, August.
    9. Piotr Dominiak & Ewa Lechman & Anna Okonowicz, 2015. "Fertility Rebound And Economic Growth. New Evidence For 18 Countries Over The Period 1970–2011," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 10(1), pages 91-112, March.
    10. Creina Day, 2016. "Can Theory Explain the Evidence on Fertility Decline Reversal?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 49(2), pages 136-145, February.
    11. Waseem Khadim & Saddam Ilyas & Bilal Mehmood, 2016. "Of Inflation and Growth Nexus in BRIMC Economies," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 4(1), pages 32-45, January.
    12. Piotr Dominiak & Ewa Lechman & Anna Okonowicz, 2014. "The Fertility Rebound And Economic Growth. New Evidence For 18 Countries Over The Period 1970-2011," GUT FME Working Paper Series A 23, Faculty of Management and Economics, Gdansk University of Technology.
    13. Rainald Borck, 2011. "Adieu Rabenmutter - The Effect of Culture on Fertility, Female Labour Supply, the Gender Wage Gap and Childcare," CESifo Working Paper Series 3337, CESifo Group Munich.

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    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics

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