The Fertility-Development Relationship in the United States: New Evidence from Threshold Regression Analysis
This study employed a threshold regression analysis (Hansen, 2000) to examine the relationship between per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and total fertility rate (TFR) in the United States. The United States is the only developed country where the declining fertility rate was reversed and recovered to the replacement level of 2.1. The findings indicate that there was a statistically significant threshold in the fertility-development relationship and a reverse in the fertility decline. The threshold value of real per capita GDP based on the Laspeyres index was US$22,267, while the threshold value of real capita GDP based on the Fisher index was US$21,264. This means that the decline in the fertility rate could be reversed when per capita income reached US$21,000-US$22,000. The empirical findings also indicate a significant negative relationship between per capita GDP and TFR when income level in the country was below the threshold value. This negative association between the two variables reversed to a positive relationship when income level had exceeded the threshold value. The findings of this study confirm the existence of a J-shaped fertility-development relationship in the United States.
Volume (Year): 30 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Matthias Doepke, 2004.
"Accounting for Fertility Decline During the Transition to Growth,"
Journal of Economic Growth,
Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 347-383, 09.
- Matthias Doepke, 2001. "Accounting for Fertility Decline During the Transition to Growth," UCLA Economics Working Papers 804, UCLA Department of Economics.
- John Bryant, 2007. "Theories of Fertility Decline and the Evidence from Development Indicators," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 33(1), pages 101-127.
- Fumitaka Furuoka, 2009. "Looking for a J-shaped development-fertility relationship: Do advances in development really reverse fertility declines?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 3067-3074.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-10-00434. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (John P. Conley)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.