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A Theory of Demographic Transition and Fertility Rebound in the Process of Economic Development


  • Dimitrios Varvarigos



Recent evidence of increasing fertility rates in developed countries, offers support to the idea that, from the onset of early industrialisation to the present day, the dynamics of fertility can be represented by an N-shaped curve. An OLG model with parental investment in human capital can account for these observed movements in fertility rates during the different phases of demographic change. A demographic transition with declining fertility emerges at the intermediate phase, when parents engage on a child quantity-quality tradeoff. At later stages however, the continuing process of economic growth generates sufficient resources so that households can rear more children while still providing the desirable amount of educational investment per child.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2013. "A Theory of Demographic Transition and Fertility Rebound in the Process of Economic Development," Discussion Papers in Economics 13/19, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  • Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:13/19

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    More about this item


    Demographic transition; Fertility rebound; Human capital;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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