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The Future of Spanish Pensions

Author

Listed:
  • Javier Diaz Gimenez

    (IESE Business School)

  • Julian Diaz Saavedra

    (Department of Economic Theory and Economic History, University of Granada.)

Abstract

We use an overlapping generations model economy with endogenous retirement to study the 2011 and 2013 reforms of the Spanish public pension system. We nd that this latest reforms, which extend the number of years os contributions used to compute the pensions, delay the retirement ages, introduce two sustainability factors, and e ectively transform the Spanish pay-as-yougo system into a de ned-contribution system, succeed in making Spanish pensions sustainable until 2037, but they fail to do so afterwards. The success until 2037 is achieved reducing the real value of the average pension and leaving the many loopholes of the contributivity and the transparency of the system unchanged. This reduction in pensions is progressive and, by 2037, the average pension will be approximately 20 percent smaller in real terms than what it would have been under the pension rules prevailing in 2010. The 2013 pension reform fails after 2037 because, from that year onwards, approximately 50 percent of the Spanish retirees will be paid the minimum pension, which is exempt from the sustainability factors. We conjecture that further reforms lurk in the future of Spanish pensions.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Diaz Gimenez & Julian Diaz Saavedra, 2014. "The Future of Spanish Pensions," ThE Papers 14/03, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
  • Handle: RePEc:gra:wpaper:14/03
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Pilar García-Gómez & Sílvia Garcia-Mandicó & Sergi Jiménez-Martín & Judit Vall-Castelló, 2018. "Trends in Employment and Social Security Incentives in the Spanish Pension System: 1980–2016," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Reforms and Retirement Incentives, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Díaz-Saavedra, Julián, 2020. "The fiscal and welfare consequences of the price indexation of Spanish pensions," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 163-184, April.
    3. Julián Díaz Saavedra, 2016. "Productividad y viabilidad del sistema Público de Pensiones," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 218(3), pages 11-32, September.
    4. Javier Diaz Gimenez & Javier Diaz Jimenez, 2017. "Catalonia; Independence and Pensions," ThE Papers 17/04, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    5. Esteban García-Miralles & Nezih Guner & Roberto Ramos, 2019. "The Spanish personal income tax: facts and parametric estimates," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 439-477, November.
    6. Pérez, Carlos & Martín-Román, Ángel & Moral, Alfonso, 2020. "Two decades of the complementary leisure effect in Spain," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 15(C).
    7. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Clara I. González, 2016. "From Bismarck to Beveridge: the other pension reform in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 461-490, November.
    8. Enrique Devesa & Mar Devesa & Inmaculada Dominguez-Fabián & Borja Encinas & Robert Meneu, 2020. "The Sustainability Factor: How Much Do Pension Expenditures Improve in Spain?," Risks, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(4), pages 1-21, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Computable general equilibrium; social security reform; retirement.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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