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The financial impact of Spanish pension reform. A quick estimate

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  • Angel De la Fuente
  • Rafael Domenech

Abstract

In this paper we present a preliminary estimate of the financial impact of the recent reform of the Spanish pension system. After updating the projections of pension expenditure constructed in de la Fuente and Domenech (2010) for the period 2008-60, we analyze the impact on this variable of raising the retirement age from 65 to 67 years, extending from 15 to 25 years the period over which wages are averaged to calculate the starting pension and increasing from 35 to 37 the number of contribution years required to obtain a \"full pension.\" Conditional on a series of assumptions about the evolution of employment, productivity and demographics, our estimates suggest that these measures will reduce pension expenditure by up to 1.4 percentage points of GDP once the reforms have been fully implemented in 2027, thereby stabilizing pension expenditure at a bit over 9% of GDP during the transition period and preventing the emergence of a structural deficit in the system before the end of the next decade. On the other hand, the existing uncertainty about the future evolution of the relevant variables suggests that it would be desirable to bring forward in time the introduction of the periodic evaluation of the system (the so-called sustainability factor) so as to have in place a mechanism that can be used to modulate the rhythm and scope of the reform if the system\'s financial situation requires it before the end of the transitional period.

Suggested Citation

  • Angel De la Fuente & Rafael Domenech, 2012. "The financial impact of Spanish pension reform. A quick estimate," Working Papers 1212, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:bbv:wpaper:1212
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Angel De la Fuente & Jose Emilio Bosca, 2011. "Gasto educativo por regiones y niveles en 2005," Working Papers 1119, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    2. Alicia García-Herrero & KC Fung & Nathalie Aminian & Francis Ng, 2012. "Trade in services: East Asian and Latin American Experiences," Working Papers 1204, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alfonso Sánchez-Martin & J. García-Pérez & Sergi Jiménez-Martín, 2014. "Delaying the Normal and Early Retirement Ages in Spain: Behavioural and Welfare Consequences for Employed and Unemployed Workers," De Economist, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 341-375, December.
    2. repec:ces:ifodic:v:13:y:2015:i:2:p:19166291 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Dã Az-Gimã‰Nez, Javier & Dã Az-Saavedra, Juliã N, 2017. "The future of Spanish pensions," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 233-265, April.
    4. Angel de la Fuente, 2015. "A Simple Model of Aggregate Pension Expenditure," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 212(1), pages 13-50, March.
    5. Alassane Diaw, 2017. "Retirement Preparedness in Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 78-86.
    6. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Clara I. González, 2015. "Challenges for Spanish Pensions in the Early 21st Century," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(02), pages 20-24, August.
    7. Díaz-Saavedra, Julián, 2020. "The fiscal and welfare consequences of the price indexation of Spanish pensions," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 163-184, April.
    8. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Clara I. González, 2016. "From Bismarck to Beveridge: the other pension reform in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 461-490, November.
    9. Manuel García & Juan M. Nave, 2018. "Impacto en las prestaciones de jubilación de la reforma del sistema público de pensiones español," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 224(1), pages 113-137, March.
    10. Javier Diaz Gimenez & Javier Diaz Jimenez, 2015. "Spanish Minimum Pensions after the 2013 Pension Reform," ThE Papers 15/04, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    11. Oihana Aristondo, 2018. "Poverty Decomposition in Incidence, Intensity and Inequality. A Review," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 225(2), pages 109-130, June.
    12. Sabina Hod?i? & Lucija Rogi? Duman?i? & Emira Be?i?, 2019. "Financial stability of pension system in the European Union member states," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 9912130, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    13. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Clara I. González, 2015. "Challenges for Spanish Pensions in the Early 21st Century," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(2), pages 20-24, 08.
    14. Santacruz Cano, Javier & Bernal Alonso, Miguel Ángel, 2015. "Efficiency in Pension Funds Management in a QE Environment: The Case of Spain/Eficiencia en la gestión de los fondos de pensiones en un entorno de QE: El caso de España," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 33, pages 687-700, Septiembr.
    15. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Clara I. González, 2013. "Reforma de pensiones 2011 en España," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 204(1), pages 9-44, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Spain; retirement age; pension reform;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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