The Euro-Sting revisited: PMI versus ESI to obtain euro area GDP forecasts
This paper uses an extension of the Euro-Sting single-index dynamic factor model to construct short-term forecasts of quarterly GDP growth for the euro area, as also including financial variables as leading indicators. From a simulated real-time exercise, the model is used to investigate the forecasting accuracy across the different phases of the business cycle. In addition, the model is used to evaluate the relative forecasting ability of the two most watched business cycle surveys for the eurozone, the PMI and the ESI. We show that the latter produces more accurate GDP forecasts than the former. Finally, the proposed model is also characterized by its great ability to capture the European business cycle, as well as the probabilities of expansion and/or contraction periods.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Javier Alonso & David Tuesta & Jasmina Bjeletic & Carlos Herrera & Soledad Hormazabal & Ivonne Ordonez & Carolina Romero, 2009. "Un balance de la inversion de los fondos de pensiones en infraestructura: la experiencia en Latinoamerica," Working Papers 0920, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
- Angel de la Fuente & José E. Boscá, 2011.
"Gasto educativo por regiones y niveles en 2005,"
UFAE and IAE Working Papers
873.11, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bbv:wpaper:1120. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (OSCAR DE LAS PENAS SANCHEZ-CARO)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.