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Estimating The Incidences Of The Recent Pension Reform In China: Evidence From 100,000 Manufacturers

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  • ZHIGANG LI
  • MINGQIN WU

Abstract

An ongoing reform in China mandates employers to contribute significant amounts to employee pension funds. The current study estimates the impact of this reform on the wage, employment and performance of firms using data from over 140,000 medium and large manufacturers in China during 2004 and 2006. We find that the nominal wages of employees were rigid but their real wages may have declined due to the pension reform. In addition, we find an interesting dichotomy in the incidences of pension reform. In localities with high agglomeration levels, firms\' profits declined because the pension burden could not be fully transferred to employees. In less agglomerated jurisdictions, firms responded positively to pension reform, possibly because local governments over-subsidized the pension costs as a way to attract investment.
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Suggested Citation

  • Zhigang Li & Mingqin Wu, 2013. "Estimating The Incidences Of The Recent Pension Reform In China: Evidence From 100,000 Manufacturers," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(2), pages 332-344, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:31:y:2013:i:2:p:332-344
    DOI: j.1465-7287.2011.00304.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Pang, Zhaofeng & Zhou, Ming, 2024. "Social security contributions and corporate outsourcing," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    2. Yao, Wenyun & Lu, Feier & Wang, Yuting & Song, Zilong, 2023. "Social insurance contributions and firms' debt concentration choice: A quasi-natural experiment based on the implementation of China's social insurance law," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    3. Wenjing Bi & Yifei Li & Xiaotao Zhang & Tenglong Zhong, 2024. "Labor protection and enterprise digital transformation: A quasi‐natural experiment based on the enforcement of Social Insurance Law in China," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 708-733, July.
    4. Li, Xiaoxue & Tian, Liu, 2020. "The effect of non-employment-based health insurance program on firm's offering of health insurance: Evidence from the social health insurance system in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 997-1010.
    5. Anping Chen & Marlon Boarnet & Mark Partridge & Bin R. Chen & Mingqin Wu, 2014. "Industrial Agglomeration And Employer Compliance With Social Security Contribution: Evidence From China," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(4), pages 586-605, September.
    6. Cui, Yadong & Liang, Jun & Wang, Wei, 2025. "Social insurance contributions and labor income share—Evidence from China's Social Insurance Law," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    7. Li, Zhigang & Wu, Mingqin, 2018. "Education and welfare program compliance: Firm-level evidence from a pension reform in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-13.
    8. Liu, Guanchun & Liu, Yuanyuan & Zhang, Chengsi & Zhu, Yueteng, 2021. "Social insurance law and corporate financing decisions in China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 816-837.
    9. Tian, Liu, 2025. "Firms’ labor market and evasion responses to the minimum social security contributions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    10. Ruan, Peiheng & Wang, Shuai & Yun, Feng, 2024. "Social insurance law and corporate performance in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor

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