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The Fiscal and Welfare Consequences of the Price Indexation of Spanish Pensions

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  • Julian Diaz Saavedra

    (Department of Economic Theory and Economic History, University of Granada.)

Abstract

The 2013 Spanish Pension Reform, aimed at guaranteeing the nancial sustainability of the system, introduced, among other measures, the Pension Revaluation Index (PRI), which uncouples annual pension updates from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases and makes the annual rise in all pensions conditional upon the system's revenue and expenditure being balanced, with ceilings and oors set in place. This automatic adjustment mechanism, however, has posed serious concerns about future pension adequacy, this being the degree of poverty alleviation and consumption smoothing that the pensions system provides to retirees, due to the expected large future reductions in the real value of the average pension. In this paper, we use a general equilibrium life cycle model, calibrated to micro and macro data in Spain, to study the scal and welfare consequences of three options for increasing pension generosity in Spain; (i) disability and minimum pensions are again fully indexed with the CPI; (ii) minimum and lower value pensions are fully indexed with the CPI; and (iii) returning to full price indexation of all Spanish pensions. While these three reforms increase, on average, pension adequacy, the tax increases needed to nance the higher future pension expenditure di er signi cantly. Moreover, most current cohorts prefer returning to the full price indexation of all Spanish pensions, but future cohorts prefer that only disability and minimum pensions be fully indexed with the CPI.

Suggested Citation

  • Julian Diaz Saavedra, 2018. "The Fiscal and Welfare Consequences of the Price Indexation of Spanish Pensions," ThE Papers 18/03, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
  • Handle: RePEc:gra:wpaper:18/03
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Concepció Patxot & Meritxell Solé & Guadalupe Souto, 2017. "Should pensions be redistributive? The impact of Spanish reforms on the system’s sustainability and adequacy," Working Papers 2017-02, FEDEA.
    2. Dã Az-Gimã‰Nez, Javier & Dã Az-Saavedra, Juliã N, 2017. "The future of Spanish pensions," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 233-265, April.
    3. De La Fuente, Angel & Domã‰Nech, Rafael, 2013. "The financial impact of Spanish pension reform: A quick estimate," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 111-137, January.
    4. Robert Holzmann & Richard Hinz, 2005. "Old Age Income Support in the 21st century: An International Perspective on Pension Systems and Reform," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7336, September.
    5. Giuseppe Carone & Per Eckefeldt & Luigi Giamboni & Veli Laine & Stéphanie Pamies Sumner, 2016. "Pension Reforms in the EU since the Early 2000's: Achievements and Challenges Ahead," European Economy - Discussion Papers 2015 - 042, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    6. Pablo Hernández de Cos & Juan Francisco Jimeno & Roberto Ramos, 2017. "The Spanish public pension system: current situation, challenges and reform alternatives," Occasional Papers 1701, Banco de España.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Computable general equilibrium; social security reform; retirement.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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