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Evaluation on the Sustainability of Urban Public Pension System in China

Author

Listed:
  • Qing Zhao

    (Center for Social Security Studies, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China)

  • Haijie Mi

    (Chinese Academy of Labor and Social Security, Beijing 10029, China)

Abstract

Against the background of population aging and economic downturn, the sustainability of pension systems has aroused great concern for governments across the world. To better reflect the pressure of pension payments in the changing context, the paper aims to forecast the annual pension gap of the public pension system for urban employees in China. By the use of Cohort-component population projections and stochastic projection models, the distribution of flow-based annual pension gap in the next fifty years are estimated under basic assumptions. The results show that the pension gap continues to exist from 2017 and keeps expanding until 2070 without any policy reform. Sensitivity analyses of demographics and various combinations of policy parameters on the distribution of future pension gaps are displayed. Wider pension coverage with lower policy threshold is more likely to face larger long-term pension gap.

Suggested Citation

  • Qing Zhao & Haijie Mi, 2019. "Evaluation on the Sustainability of Urban Public Pension System in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-20, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:5:p:1418-:d:211848
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Johnston, Lauren A., 2020. "China’s Economic Demography Transition Strategy: A Population Weighted Approach to the Economy and Policy," GLO Discussion Paper Series 593, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    2. Qing Zhao & Zhen Li & Yihuan Wang, 2019. "Adequacy Analysis of the Basic Old-Age Pension System Based on Local Administrative Data in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-18, December.
    3. Woong Bee Choi & Dongyeol Lee & Woo Chang Kim, 2021. "Extending the Scope of ALM to Social Investment: Investing in Population Growth to Enhance Sustainability of the Korean National Pension Service," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, January.
    4. Mel Cousins, 2021. "The sustainability of China’s Urban Employees’ Pension Programme: A case of getting old before getting rich?," International Social Security Review, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 74(1), pages 59-77, January.
    5. Li Yang, 2021. "Towards equity and sustainability? China’s pension system reform moves center stage," World Inequality Lab Working Papers halshs-03215912, HAL.
    6. Andrea Čajková & Peter Čajka, 2021. "Challenges and Sustainability of China’s Socio-Economic Stability in the Context of Its Demographic Development," Societies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, March.
    7. Haoyu Hu & Wei Wang & Dawei Feng & Hualei Yang, 2021. "Relationships between migration and the fiscal sustainability of the pension system in China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(3), pages 1-16, March.
    8. Huan Wang & Jianyuan Huang & Shuangyue Sun, 2019. "Assessment of the Financial Sustainability of China’s New Rural Pension Plan: Does the Demographic Policy Reform Matter?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-22, September.
    9. Shuo Ding, 2023. "Vulnerability to Poverty in Chinese Households with Elderly Members: 2013–2018," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-30, March.
    10. Li Yang, 2021. "Towards equity and sustainability? China’s pension system reform moves center stage," Working Papers halshs-03215912, HAL.
    11. Min Le & Xinrong Xiao & Dragan Pamučar & Qianling Liang, 2021. "A Study on Fiscal Risk of China’s Employees Basic Pension System under Longevity Risk," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-23, May.
    12. Niu, Geng & Zhou, Yang & Gan, Hongwu, 2020. "Financial literacy and retirement preparation in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).

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