IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v8y2016i1p46-d62136.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Stochastic Forecast of the Financial Sustainability of Basic Pension in China

Author

Listed:
  • Yuehong Tian

    () (College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China
    School of Economics and Management, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454003, China)

  • Xianglian Zhao

    () (College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China)

Abstract

The paper focuses on the stochastic forecast of the financial sustainability ofbasic pension, based on predictions for the population of China. The population was calculated iteratively by using Leslie matrix. An auto-regressive moving average model was adapted for the predictions of the fertility rates and the mortality rates. The Monte Carlo stochastic method was adapted for the projections of the dynamic process of the financial sustainability of the basic pension from 2013 to 2087 by 5000 times simulation. The forecasting results show that the imbalance of basic pension will occur in 2026. If the statutory retirement age is postponed by five years, the occurrence of the financial gap of the basic pension may be delayedby about 20 years, and the median deficit of basic pension will be reduced by about 64.25% in 2087.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuehong Tian & Xianglian Zhao, 2016. "Stochastic Forecast of the Financial Sustainability of Basic Pension in China," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(1), pages 1-17, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:8:y:2016:i:1:p:46-:d:62136
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/8/1/46/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/8/1/46/
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Grech, Aaron George, 2010. "Assessing the sustainability of pension reforms in Europe," MPRA Paper 27407, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Andersen, Torben M., 2008. "Increasing longevity and social security reforms--A legislative procedure approach," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3-4), pages 633-646, April.
    3. Jimeno, Juan F. & Rojas, Juan A. & Puente, Sergio, 2008. "Modelling the impact of aging on social security expenditures," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 201-224, March.
    4. Lee, Ronald & Yamagata, Hisashi, 2003. "Sustainable Social Security: What Would It Cost?," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 56(1), pages 27-43, March.
    5. Ronald Lee & Shripad Tuljapurkar, 1998. "Stochastic Forecasts for Social Security," NBER Chapters,in: Frontiers in the Economics of Aging, pages 393-428 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Booth, H. & Tickle, L., 2008. "Mortality Modelling and Forecasting: a Review of Methods," Annals of Actuarial Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(1-2), pages 3-43, September.
    7. Mielczarek, Bożena, 2013. "Simulation model to forecast the consequences of changes introduced into the 2nd pillar of the Polish pension system," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 706-714.
    8. MacDonald, Bonnie-Jeanne & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2011. "Three retirement decision models for defined contribution pension plan members: A simulation study," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 1-18, January.
    9. Galasso, Vincenzo, 2008. "Postponing retirement: the political effect of aging," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(10-11), pages 2157-2169, October.
    10. Kaganovich, Michael & Zilcha, Itzhak, 2012. "Pay-as-you-go or funded social security? A general equilibrium comparison," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 455-467.
    11. Henrik Petersen, Jorn, 1998. "Recent research on public pension systems. A review," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 91-108, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:4:p:1028-:d:138897 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:mje:mjejnl:v:12:y:2016:i:3:p:127-138 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:12:p:2252-:d:121847 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:6:p:1069-:d:102066 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    basic pension; financial sustainability; population; postponed retirement; contributions and expenditures; Monte Carlo stochastic simulation;

    JEL classification:

    • Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics
    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General
    • Q2 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q3 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:8:y:2016:i:1:p:46-:d:62136. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (XML Conversion Team). General contact details of provider: http://www.mdpi.com/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.