IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jpamgt/v26y2007i3p507-525.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Uncertain policy for an uncertain world: The case of social security

Author

Listed:
  • John Sabelhaus

    (No affiliation)

  • Julie Topoleski

    (No affiliation)

Abstract

Analysis and discussion of Social Security policy are usually based on expected fiscal and societal outcomes. However, future demographic and economic trends are uncertain, and thus ultimate outcomes for aggregate system financial flows and the distribution of taxes and benefits across generations are uncertain. This paper analyzes a state-dependent approach to policy in which future Social Security benefit formulas are tied to realized economic and demographic outcomes over time. The results, based on a microsimulation model with stochastic capabilities, show the extent to which it is possible to systematically address uncertainty about system finances and distributional outcomes. © 2007 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management

Suggested Citation

  • John Sabelhaus & Julie Topoleski, 2007. "Uncertain policy for an uncertain world: The case of social security," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 507-525.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jpamgt:v:26:y:2007:i:3:p:507-525 DOI: 10.1002/pam.20263
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/pam.20263
    File Function: Link to full text; subscription required
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gustman, Alan L. & Steinmeier, Thomas L., 2001. "How effective is redistribution under the social security benefit formula?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 1-28, October.
    2. Henning Bohn, 2001. "Retirement Savings in an Aging Society: A Case for Innovative Government Debt Management," CESifo Working Paper Series 494, CESifo Group Munich.
    3. Ronald Lee & Shripad Tuljapurkar, 1998. "Stochastic Forecasts for Social Security," NBER Chapters,in: Frontiers in the Economics of Aging, pages 393-428 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Eytan Sheshinski & Yoram Weiss, 1981. "Uncertainty and Optimal Social Security Systems," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 96(2), pages 189-206.
    5. Kent Smetters, 2004. "Is the Social Security Trust Fund a Store of Value?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 176-181, May.
    6. Josh O’Harra & John Sabelhaus & Michael Simpson, 2004. "Overview of the Congressional Budget Office Long-Term (CBOLT) Policy Simulation Model: Technical Paper 2004-01," Working Papers 15188, Congressional Budget Office.
    7. Ronald Lee & Ryan Edwards, 2002. "The Fiscal Effects of Population Aging in the U.S.: Assessing the Uncertainties," NBER Chapters,in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 16, pages 141-180 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Lyon, Andrew B. & Stell, John L., 2000. "Analysis of Current Social Security Reform Proposals," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 53(n. 3), pages 473-514, September.
    9. Gordon, Roger H. & Varian, Hal R., 1988. "Intergenerational risk sharing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 185-202, November.
    10. Lee, Ronald & Yamagata, Hisashi, 2003. "Sustainable Social Security: What Would It Cost?," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 56(1), pages 27-43, March.
    11. Lyon, Andrew B. & Stell, John L., 2000. "Analysis of Current Social Security Reform Proposals," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 53(3), pages 473-514, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hugo Benitez-Silva & Frank Heiland, 2008. "Early Retirement, Labor Supply, and Benefit Withholding: The Role of the Social Security Earnings Test," Working Papers wp183, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    2. Hugo Benitez-Silva & Debra S. Dwyer & Frank Heiland & Warren C. Sanderson, 2006. "Retirement and Social Security Reform Expectations: A Solution to the New Early Retirement Puzzle," Department of Economics Working Papers 06-05, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
    3. Batabyal, Amitrajeet & Nijkamp, Peter, 2016. "On Pessimism and Optimism by Forward Looking Agents and the Need for Social Security," MPRA Paper 75965, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Jan 2017.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jpamgt:v:26:y:2007:i:3:p:507-525. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/34787/home .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.