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How Does Differential Mortality Affect Social Security Finances and Progressivity? Working Paper 2005-05

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  • Amy Rehder Harris
  • John Sabelhaus

Abstract

The Congressional Budget Office Long-Term (CBOLT) model uses dynamic micro-simulation for a representative sample of the population to analyze the aggregate and distributional effects of Social Security policy. In the model, overall mortality rates by age and sex are calibrated to match Social Security Trustees projections, and differential mortality (the difference in death rates across socioeconomic groups) is introduced using a combination of disability-specific mortality and a technique for the non-disabled developed by Lillard and Panis (1999). In this paper, the

Suggested Citation

  • Amy Rehder Harris & John Sabelhaus, 2005. "How Does Differential Mortality Affect Social Security Finances and Progressivity? Working Paper 2005-05," Working Papers 16493, Congressional Budget Office.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbo:wpaper:16493
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    File URL: https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/109th-congress-2005-2006/workingpaper/2005-05_0.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Feldstein, Martin & Liebman, Jeffrey B. (ed.), 2002. "The Distributional Aspects of Social Security and Social Security Reform," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226241067, December.
    2. Martin Feldstein & Jeffrey B. Liebman, 2002. "The Distributional Aspects of Social Security and Social Security Reform," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number feld02-1, March.
    3. Julia Lynn Coronado & Don Fullerton & Thomas Glass, 2002. "Long-Run Effects of Social Security Reform Proposals on Lifetime Progressivity," NBER Chapters, in: The Distributional Aspects of Social Security and Social Security Reform, pages 149-206, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Garrett, Daniel M, 1995. "The Effects of Differential Mortality Rates on the Progressivity of Social Security," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(3), pages 457-475, July.
    5. Gustman, Alan L. & Steinmeier, Thomas L., 2001. "How effective is redistribution under the social security benefit formula?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 1-28, October.
    6. Diane Lauderdale, 2001. "Education and survival: Birth cohort, period, and age effects," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(4), pages 551-561, November.
    7. Barry P. Bosworth & Gary Burtless, 2004. "Supply-Side Consequences of Social Security Reform: Impacts on Saving and Employment," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2004-1, Center for Retirement Research, revised Jan 2004.
    8. Brian S. Armour & M. Melinda Pitts, 2002. "Incorporating insurance rate estimates and differential mortality into net marginal Social Security tax rate calculations," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2002-29, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    9. Martin Feldstein, 2005. "Structural Reform of Social Security," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(2), pages 33-55, Spring.
    10. Kevin Perese, 2002. "Mate Matching for Microsimulation Models: Technical Paper 2002-3," Working Papers 14211, Congressional Budget Office.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeffrey R. Brown & Julia Lynn Coronado & Don Fullerton, 2009. "Is Social Security Part of the Social Safety Net?," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 23, pages 37-72, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. John Sabelhaus & Lina Walker, 2009. "Econometric flexibility in microsimulation: an age-centred regression approach," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 2(2), pages 1-14.
    3. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier & Nahid Tabatabai, 2011. "The Effects of Changes in Women's Labor Market Attachment on Redistribution Under the Social Security Benefit Formula," NBER Working Papers 17439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Coronado Julia Lynn & Fullerton Don & Glass Thomas, 2011. "The Progressivity of Social Security," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-45, November.
    5. Mazzaferro, Carlo & Morciano, Marcello & Savegnago, Marco, 2012. "Differential mortality and redistribution in the Italian notional defined contribution system," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(4), pages 500-530, October.
    6. John Sabelhaus & Julie Topoleski, 2006. "Uncertain Policy for an Uncertain World: The Case of Social Security: Working Paper 2006-05," Working Papers 17664, Congressional Budget Office.
    7. John Sabelhaus & Julie Topoleski, 2007. "Uncertain policy for an uncertain world: The case of social security," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 507-525.
    8. Julian P. Cristia, 2007. "The Empirical Relationship Between Lifetime Earnings and Mortality: Working Paper 2007-11," Working Papers 19096, Congressional Budget Office.

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