Spain 2011 Pension Reform
The aim of this paper is to evaluate the impact of the Spanish pension reform enacted in 2011. We use an accounting model with heterogeneous agents and overlapping generations in order to project revenues and expenditures of the pension system for the next four decades. Specifically, we analyze the impact of changes in the replacement rate, in the period of calculation and the delay of the retirement age. We obtain results under two alternative migration scenarios: (i) a combination of the latest figures released by the INE, which forecast a reduced annual immigration net flow of some 70,000 persons; and (ii) a revised scenario featuring a more generous hypothesis concerning this net flow. We demonstrate that the results show that these three changes instigated by the reform could imply a savings of about 3 percentage points of GDP in 2051. However, we couldn't include in the evaluation the sustainability factor (that transform the Spanish system in a defined contribution scheme) that will start in 2027 due to the lack of details in the text of the Reform. Finally, we analyze the changes in average pensions by gender, skill, and nationality.
References listed on IDEAS
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- Ignacio Moral-Arce & Ció Patxot & Guadalupe Souto, 2008. "La sostenibilidad del sistema de pensiones. una aproximación a partir de la MCVL," Revista de Economia Aplicada, Universidad de Zaragoza, Departamento de Estructura Economica y Economia Publica, vol. 16(E-1), pages 29-66, Special N.
- Rojas, Juan A., 2005.
"Life-cycle earnings, cohort size effects and social security: a quantitative exploration,"
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Elsevier, vol. 89(2-3), pages 465-485, February.
- Juan A. Rojas, "undated". "Life-cycle Earnings Cohort Size Effects and Social Security. A Quantitative Exploration," Studies on the Spanish Economy 88, FEDEA.
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"Does gender matter for academic promotion? Evidence from a randomized natural experiment,"
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- Jimeno, Juan F. & Rojas, Juan A. & Puente, Sergio, 2008.
"Modelling the impact of aging on social security expenditures,"
Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 201-224, March.
- Juan F. Jimeno & Juan A. Rojas & Sergio Puente, 2006. "Modeling the impact of aging on social security expenditures," Occasional Papers 0601, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
- Angel Melguizo & Manuel Balmaseda & David Taguas, 2005. "Las reformas necesarias en el sistema de pensiones contributivas en Espana," Working Papers 0505, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
- Balmaseda, Manuel & Melguizo, Angel & Taguas, David, 2006.
"Las reformas necesarias en el sistema de pensiones contributivas en España
[Reforming the Spanish contributory pension system]," MPRA Paper 19574, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Mar 2006.
- Javier Alonso Meseguer & José A. Herce, "undated". "Balance del sistema de pensiones y boom migratorio en España. Proyecciones del modelo MODPENS de FEDEA a 2050," Working Papers 2003-02, FEDEA.
- Angel de la Fuente & Rafael Doménech, 2011. "The Impact of Spanish Pension Reform on Expenditure: a Quick Estimate," Working Papers 542, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Angel De la Fuente & Rafael Domenech, 2011. "The impact of Spanish pension reform on expenditure: A quick estimate," Working Papers 1112, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
- Clara Isabel González & J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Michele Boldrin, 2008. "Immigration and Social Security in Spain," Working Papers 2008-36, FEDEA.Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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