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Spain 2011 Pension Reform

Author

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  • Conde-Ruiz, J. Ignacio
  • Gonzalez, Clara I.

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the impact of the Spanish pension reform enacted in 2011. We use an accounting model with heterogeneous agents and overlapping generations in order to project revenues and expenditures of the pension system for the next four decades. Specifically, we analyze the impact of changes in the replacement rate, in the period of calculation and the delay of the retirement age. We obtain results under two alternative migration scenarios: (i) a combination of the latest figures released by the INE, which forecast a reduced annual immigration net flow of some 70,000 persons; and (ii) a revised scenario featuring a more generous hypothesis concerning this net flow. We demonstrate that the results show that these three changes instigated by the reform could imply a savings of about 3 percentage points of GDP in 2051. However, we couldn't include in the evaluation the sustainability factor (that transform the Spanish system in a defined contribution scheme) that will start in 2027 due to the lack of details in the text of the Reform. Finally, we analyze the changes in average pensions by gender, skill, and nationality.

Suggested Citation

  • Conde-Ruiz, J. Ignacio & Gonzalez, Clara I., 2012. "Spain 2011 Pension Reform," Working Papers 2012-03, FEDEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2012-03
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    File URL: http://documentos.fedea.net/pubs/dt/2012/dt-2012-03.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ignacio Moral-Arce & Ció Patxot & Guadalupe Souto, 2008. "La sostenibilidad del sistema de pensiones. una aproximación a partir de la MCVL," Revista de Economia Aplicada, Universidad de Zaragoza, Departamento de Estructura Economica y Economia Publica, vol. 16(E-1), pages 29-66, Special N.
    2. Rojas, Juan A., 2005. "Life-cycle earnings, cohort size effects and social security: a quantitative exploration," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2-3), pages 465-485, February.
    3. Natalia Zinovyeva & Manuel F. Bagues, 2010. "Does gender matter for academic promotion? Evidence from a randomized natural experiment," Working Papers 2010-15, FEDEA.
    4. Jimeno, Juan F. & Rojas, Juan A. & Puente, Sergio, 2008. "Modelling the impact of aging on social security expenditures," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 201-224, March.
    5. Angel Melguizo & Manuel Balmaseda & David Taguas, 2005. "Las reformas necesarias en el sistema de pensiones contributivas en Espana," Working Papers 0505, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    6. Javier Alonso Meseguer & José A. Herce, "undated". "Balance del sistema de pensiones y boom migratorio en España. Proyecciones del modelo MODPENS de FEDEA a 2050," Working Papers 2003-02, FEDEA.
    7. Angel de la Fuente & Rafael Doménech, 2011. "The Impact of Spanish Pension Reform on Expenditure: a Quick Estimate," Working Papers 542, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    8. Clara Isabel González & J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Michele Boldrin, 2008. "Immigration and Social Security in Spain," Working Papers 2008-36, FEDEA.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Irse para Volver
      by J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz in Nada Es Gratis on 2012-10-25 11:00:24
    2. No Reformemos las Pensiones por la puerta de atrás…
      by J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz in Nada Es Gratis on 2013-02-25 13:00:21

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone & Andrea Tesei, 2012. "Oil Price Shocks, Income, and Democracy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(2), pages 389-399, May.
    2. Raquel Vegas Sánchez & Isabel Argimón & Marta Botella & Clara González, 2013. "Old age pensions and retirement in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 273-307, August.
    3. repec:ers:journl:v:xx:y:2017:i:2a:p:109-127 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Julian Diaz Saavedra, 2014. "Early Retirement, Social Security, and Output Gap," ThE Papers 14/01, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..

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