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El efecto de la inmigración en la sostenibilidad a largo plazo del sistema de pensiones en España

Author

Listed:
  • Zenon Jiménez-Ridruejo Ayuso

    () (Universidad de Valladolid)

  • Carlos Borondo Arribas

    () (Universidad de Valladolid)

  • Julio López Díaz

    () (Universidad de Valladolid)

  • Carmen Lorenzo Lago

    () (Universidad de Valladolid)

  • Carmen Rodríguez Sumaza

    () (Universidad de Valladolid)

Abstract

In this paper we build a socio-economic simulation model, called Carrion, to project the public expenditure on the retirement pensions, the social security contributions and the GDP through 2060. The model makes use of detailed hypothesis backed with econometric estimations on the behavior of current and future immigrants related to the length of stay, fertility, wages and employment rates. This information, along with the same for the native population, allows a detailed analysis of the effect of immigration on the balance of the social security system. The main result is that the solvency ratio (contributions over pensions) of immigrants is clearly above that of natives and will be so until 2055, when both ratios will be well under current values

Suggested Citation

  • Zenon Jiménez-Ridruejo Ayuso & Carlos Borondo Arribas & Julio López Díaz & Carmen Lorenzo Lago & Carmen Rodríguez Sumaza, 2009. "El efecto de la inmigración en la sostenibilidad a largo plazo del sistema de pensiones en España," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 188(1), pages 74-121, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:hpe:journl:y:2009:v:188:1:p:74-121
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographic projections; Social Security; pensions; sustainability of pension system;

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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