El efecto de la inmigración en la sostenibilidad a largo plazo del sistema de pensiones en España
In this paper we build a socio-economic simulation model, called Carrion, to project the public expenditure on the retirement pensions, the social security contributions and the GDP through 2060. The model makes use of detailed hypothesis backed with econometric estimations on the behavior of current and future immigrants related to the length of stay, fertility, wages and employment rates. This information, along with the same for the native population, allows a detailed analysis of the effect of immigration on the balance of the social security system. The main result is that the solvency ratio (contributions over pensions) of immigrants is clearly above that of natives and will be so until 2055, when both ratios will be well under current values
Volume (Year): 188 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Avda. Cardenal Herrera Oria, 378, 28035 Madrid|
Web page: http://www.ief.es
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Carrasco, Raquel & Ortega, Ana Carolina & Jimeno, Juan F., 2004.
"The effect of immigration on the employment opportunities of native-born workers : some evidence for Spain,"
UC3M Working papers. Economics
we046122, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
- Raquel Carrasco & Juan Ramón García & Ana Carolina Ortega, . "The Effect of Immigration on the Employment Opportunities of Native-Born Workers: Some Evidence for Spain," Working Papers 2004-17, FEDEA.
- David Coleman, 2006. "Immigration and Ethnic Change in Low-Fertility Countries: A Third Demographic Transition," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 32(3), pages 401-446.
- George J. Borjas, 2003. "The Labor Demand Curve is Downward Sloping: Reexamining the Impact of Immigration on the Labor Market," NBER Working Papers 9755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christian Dustmann & Francesca Fabbri & Ian Preston, 2005. "The Impact of Immigration on the British Labour Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(507), pages F324-F341, November.
- Borjas, George J., 1999. "The economic analysis of immigration," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 28, pages 1697-1760 Elsevier.
- Juan F. Jimeno & Juan A. Rojas & Sergio Puente, 2006.
"Modeling the impact of aging on social security expenditures,"
0601, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
- Jimeno, Juan F. & Rojas, Juan A. & Puente, Sergio, 2008. "Modelling the impact of aging on social security expenditures," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 201-224, March.
- Rudolf Winter-Ebmer & Josef Zweimüller, 1999.
"Do immigrants displace young native workers: The Austrian experience,"
Journal of Population Economics,
Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 12(2), pages 327-340.
- Rudolf Winter-Ebmer, . "Do Immigrants Displace Young Native Workers: The Austrian Experience," IEW - Working Papers 011, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
- Robert J. LaLonde & Robert H. Topel, 1989.
"Labor Market Adjustments to Increased Immigration,"
University of Chicago - George G. Stigler Center for Study of Economy and State
55, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State.
- Juan A. Rojas, .
"Life-cycle Earnings Cohort Size Effects and Social Security. A Quantitative Exploration,"
Studies on the Spanish Economy
- Rojas, Juan A., 2005. "Life-cycle earnings, cohort size effects and social security: a quantitative exploration," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2-3), pages 465-485, February.
- Joan Gil & Miguel Angel López García & Jorge Onrubia & Cío Patxot & Guadalupe Souto, 2007.
"A projection model of the contributory pension expenditure of the spanish social security system: 2004-2050,"
Hacienda Pública Española,
IEF, vol. 182(3), pages 75-116, September.
- Joan Gil & Miguel-Ángel López-García & Jorge Onrubia & Concepción Patxot & Guadalupe Souto, . "A Projection Model Of The Contributory Pension Expenditure Of The Spanish Social Security System: 2004-2050," Working Papers 30-06 Classification-JEL , Instituto de Estudios Fiscales.
- Angel Melguizo & Manuel Balmaseda & David Taguas, 2005.
"Las reformas necesarias en el sistema de pensiones contributivas en Espana,"
0505, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
- Balmaseda, Manuel & Melguizo, Angel & Taguas, David, 2006.
"Las reformas necesarias en el sistema de pensiones contributivas en España
[Reforming the Spanish contributory pension system]," MPRA Paper 19574, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Mar 2006.
- Balmaseda, Manuel & Melguizo, Angel & Taguas, David, 2006. "Las reformas necesarias en el sistema de pensiones contributivas en España
- Charles I. Jones, .
"Sources of U.S. Economic Growth in a World of Ideas,"
98009, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
- Charles I. Jones, 2002. "Sources of U.S. Economic Growth in a World of Ideas," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 220-239, March.
- Jones, C.I., 2000. "Sources of U.S. Economic Growth in a World of Ideas," Papers 99-29, United Nations World Employment Programme-.
- Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf & Zweimuller, Josef, 1996.
"Immigration and the Earnings of Young Native Workers,"
Oxford Economic Papers,
Oxford University Press, vol. 48(3), pages 473-91, July.
- Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf & Zweimüller, Josef, 1994. "Immigration and the Earnings of Young Native Workers," CEPR Discussion Papers 936, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrea Montanino & Bartosz Przywara & David Young, 2004. "Investment in education: the implications for economic growth and public finances - Andrea Montanino, Bartosz Przywara and David Young," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 217, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- George J. Borjas, 2003. "The Labor Demand Curve is Downward Sloping: Reexamining the Impact of Immigration on the Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1335-1374.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hpe:journl:y:2009:v:188:1:p:74-121. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ana Belén Miquel Burgos)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.