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El efecto de la inmigración en la sostenibilidad a largo plazo del sistema de pensiones en España

  • Zenon Jiménez-Ridruejo Ayuso


    (Universidad de Valladolid)

  • Carlos Borondo Arribas


    (Universidad de Valladolid)

  • Julio López Díaz


    (Universidad de Valladolid)

  • Carmen Lorenzo Lago


    (Universidad de Valladolid)

  • Carmen Rodríguez Sumaza


    (Universidad de Valladolid)

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    In this paper we build a socio-economic simulation model, called Carrion, to project the public expenditure on the retirement pensions, the social security contributions and the GDP through 2060. The model makes use of detailed hypothesis backed with econometric estimations on the behavior of current and future immigrants related to the length of stay, fertility, wages and employment rates. This information, along with the same for the native population, allows a detailed analysis of the effect of immigration on the balance of the social security system. The main result is that the solvency ratio (contributions over pensions) of immigrants is clearly above that of natives and will be so until 2055, when both ratios will be well under current values

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    Article provided by IEF in its journal Hacienda Pública Española/Revista de Economía Pública.

    Volume (Year): 188 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 1 (March)
    Pages: 74-121

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    Handle: RePEc:hpe:journl:y:2009:v:188:1:p:74-121
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    1. Juan A. Rojas, . "Life-cycle Earnings Cohort Size Effects and Social Security. A Quantitative Exploration," Studies on the Spanish Economy 88, FEDEA.
    2. David Coleman, 2006. "Immigration and Ethnic Change in Low-Fertility Countries: A Third Demographic Transition," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 32(3), pages 401-446.
    3. Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf & Zweimüller, Josef, 1994. "Immigration and the Earnings of Young Native Workers," CEPR Discussion Papers 936, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Joan Gil & Miguel Angel López García & Jorge Onrubia & Cío Patxot & Guadalupe Souto, 2007. "A projection model of the contributory pension expenditure of the spanish social security system: 2004-2050," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 182(3), pages 75-116, September.
    5. Raquel Carrasco & Juan F. Jimeno & Ana Carolina Ortega, 2004. "The Effect Of Immigration On The Employment Opportunities Of Native-Born Workers: Some Evidence For Spain," Economics Working Papers we046122, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
    6. Rudolf Winter-Ebmer & Josef Zweimüller, 1999. "Do immigrants displace young native workers: The Austrian experience," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 327-340.
    7. Charles I. Jones, 2002. "Sources of U.S. Economic Growth in a World of Ideas," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 220-239, March.
    8. Juan F. Jimeno & Juan A. Rojas & Sergio Puente, 2006. "Modeling the impact of aging on social security expenditures," Banco de Espa�a Occasional Papers 0601, Banco de Espa�a.
    9. Andrea Montanino & Bartosz Przywara & David Young, 2004. "Investment in education: the implications for economic growth and public finances - Andrea Montanino, Bartosz Przywara and David Young," European Economy - Economic Papers 217, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    10. Christian Dustmann & Francesca Fabbri & Ian Preston, 2005. "The Impact of Immigration on the British Labour Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(507), pages F324-F341, November.
    11. Robert J. LaLonde & Robert H. Topel, 1991. "Labor Market Adjustments to Increased Immigration," NBER Chapters, in: Immigration, Trade, and the Labor Market, pages 167-199 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Angel Melguizo & Manuel Balmaseda & David Taguas, 2005. "Las reformas necesarias en el sistema de pensiones contributivas en Espana," Working Papers 0505, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    13. Borjas, George J., 1999. "The economic analysis of immigration," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 28, pages 1697-1760 Elsevier.
    14. George J. Borjas, 2003. "The Labor Demand Curve Is Downward Sloping: Reexamining The Impact Of Immigration On The Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1335-1374, November.
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