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A projection model of the contributory pension expenditure of the spanish social security system: 2004-2050

Author

Listed:
  • Joan Gil

    () (Centre d’Anàlisi Econòmica i de les polítiques Socials (CAEPS), Universitat de Barcelona)

  • Miguel Angel López García

    () (Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona)

  • Jorge Onrubia

    () (Universidad Complutense de Madrid)

  • Cío Patxot

    () (Instituto de Estudios Fiscales y CAEPS, Universitat de Barcelona)

  • Guadalupe Souto

    () (Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona)

Abstract

The need for long-term fiscal projections is self evident. Of these projections, pension expenditure is one of the most important since firstly it represents a large share of total expenditure, and secondly because of the positive correlation between this variable and demographic ageing. In this paper, we develop a model to project contributory pension expenditures in the Spanish Social Security System disaggregating the results by pension category, social security regime and sex. The most salient of the results obtained is the expected steady growth of total expenditure in contributory pensions. This would lie around 15% of GDP around 2045 compared to its initial level of barely 8% even though the baseline scenario incorporates a substantial recovery of employment and female participation rates. By pension categories, retirement pensions are those that determine the tendency of total expenditure evolution. Interesting conclusions can also be extracted from the analysis by sex. For instance, even accounting for an increase in female retirement pensions due to their higher participation, the corresponding increase in widow male pensions implies a higher total increase of the total number of contributory pensions accruing to men.

Suggested Citation

  • Joan Gil & Miguel Angel López García & Jorge Onrubia & Cío Patxot & Guadalupe Souto, 2007. "A projection model of the contributory pension expenditure of the spanish social security system: 2004-2050," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 182(3), pages 75-116, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:hpe:journl:y:2007:v:182:i:3:p:75-116
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Meyerson, Noah & Sabelhaus, John, 2000. "Uncertainty in Social Security Trust Fund Projections," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 53(3), pages 515-530, September.
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    6. Meyerson, Noah & Sabelhaus, John, 2000. "Uncertainty in Social Security Trust Fund Projections," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 53(n. 3), pages 515-30, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Angel de la Fuente, 2015. "A Simple Model of Aggregate Pension Expenditure," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 212(1), pages 13-50, March.
    2. Díaz-Giménez, Javier & Díaz-Saavedra, Julián, 2017. "The future of Spanish pensions," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(02), pages 233-265, April.
    3. Javier Vazquez Grenno, 2010. "Spanish pension system: Population aging and immigration policy," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 195(4), pages 37-64, december.
    4. Manuela Bosch-Princep (Universitat de Barcelona) & Daniel Vilalta (Independent Pension Consultant), 2012. "Quantitative reduction in retirement benefits by the 2011 Spanish Social Security reform," Working Papers in Economics 281, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
    5. Clara Isabel González & J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Michele Boldrin, 2008. "Immigration and Social Security in Spain," Working Papers 2008-36, FEDEA.
    6. Zenon Jiménez-Ridruejo Ayuso & Carlos Borondo Arribas & Julio López Díaz & Carmen Lorenzo Lago & Carmen Rodríguez Sumaza, 2009. "El efecto de la inmigración en la sostenibilidad a largo plazo del sistema de pensiones en España," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 188(1), pages 74-121, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pensions system; sustainability; public expenditure.;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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